100/200 bluff hand

ggbman · #1 11-02-2005, 02:48 PM

This is from a few weeks ago, i am not currently playing this game because i suck at high limits [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I though this was interesting at the time though. The SB in this hand is solid, and probably views me as over aggressive and a bit loose. He has been playing back at me a ton. I think his preflop range is A4+, any 2 cards over 9, any pair, and some occasional random stuff like K7s etc...

Party Poker 100/200 Hold'em (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises...

Now i am getting 10 to 1 on the flop, obviously an easy call. On the turn, lets make a few assumptions. Lets say he never folds an ace, but he folds all other non pocket pair hands. Also, if he calls the turn with ace high, assume he is always paying off my river raise when a J or 9 hits. I am checking behind any river except those cards. Is this play +EV?

Nigel · #2 11-02-2005, 03:09 PM

My gut feeling is no.

I know that's not the analysis you are looking for, but I just think there are too many hands for him to hold that he is not folding (any pair and all aces).

It's a weird spot to bluff and if he knows you know this then maybe it could work, but it seems to hinge on a lot of things going in your favor.

TStoneMBD · #3 11-02-2005, 03:17 PM

i think a good player will be calling this raise with king high a surprising amount of time and he will sometimes call a river follow through and sometimes fold.

imported_ncray · #4 11-02-2005, 03:20 PM

According to your range without the occasional random stuff:
A4+: 4 aces and 36 cards over 4 = 144
Any 2 over 9 (excluding 9x): 44 + 24 + 16 = 84
Any pair: 54 + 2 + 6 = 62
Total: 290

EV 84/290 = 29.0% of the time when he has any 2 over 9: +6.5BBs

Assumptions because I'm lazy: He always checks the river, and you always win when you spike a 9 or J. Oh yeah, he doesn't 3-bet the turn.

6 outs = 14.3%
14.3%*(+8.5BB) = 1.2155BB
85.7%*(-2BB) = 1.714
= - .4985BBs

So when he has any 2 over 9 29% of the time you make +6.5BBs . Otherwise, given the assumptions 71% of the time you lose .4985BBs, 1.885-0.353935 = +1.501065BBs. This estimate leaves out the times when he has something like AA and the river is a 9 and he checkraises you and you fold or calls your bet.

Note: I did this in a hurry, so there might be mistakes.

NLSoldier · #5 11-02-2005, 03:20 PM

The only thing you have going for you is the fact that he will probably think "theres no way this guy is retarded enough to try and bluff me on this board"

ggbman · #6 11-02-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing you have going for you is the fact that he will probably think "theres no way this guy is retarded enough to try and bluff me on this board"

[/ QUOTE ]

Either you are joking or underestimating how i think this is given his hand range. (and i am stupid enough to do anything [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

ClaytonN · #7 11-02-2005, 03:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The SB in this hand is solid, and probably views me as over aggressive and a bit loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then his range for getting to SD here is gonna be wider, no? Would it be unreasonable that he were to call you down with 33 or king high?

tansoku · #8 11-02-2005, 03:47 PM

I’ll take a stab at it:
Cheating a bit using Pokerstove, 36% of hands is about the range pflop you are talking about.
Any Axs, A4os+, any PP = 18.6%
So half the time he has a hand that calls your turn raise.
Board: 2s 7c 7d 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 86.4601 % 83.18% 03.28% { 22+, A2s+, A4o+ }
Hand 2: 13.5399 % 10.26% 03.28% { Jd9h }

Pot is 5.5 BB + 1 (his bet) = 6.5 BB

.5 x 6.5 = +3.25 BB when he folds.

You gain 3 bets on the river when you improve (his turn call + river bet/raise call), lose your turn raise 2BB when you don’t:

.135 x 9.5 = +1.28 BB
.865 x 2 = -1.73 BB

EV = -.45 BB

But this only happens the 50% of the time he has a hand that calls the turn raise so:

.5 x .45 = -.23 BB

Net = 3.25 - .23 = +3BB

Note that if he folds the river UI (when you improve) your EV drops to 1 BB vs 1.28.
Getting him to fold is huge….

Kuso · #9 11-02-2005, 03:57 PM

If I were Villain, I would put you on an overpair or a bluff. If you actually had a deuce or seven or quads, why would you want to tip off your hand to an aggressor who you are most likely ahead of? A boat could probably get two more BBs out of him on the river (bet and call the raise).

As Villain, I would be tempted to call with two broadway cards and then reevaluate on the river. If I had a big PP, I would call down to the river believing that I was ahead.

There could be some reverse psychology ideas going, but that seems a bit risky to me.

Then again, I don't play 100/200. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

ggbman · #10 11-02-2005, 04:19 PM

Then he makes a good play this time, although i think it would be tough. I would probably reem him on future hands though if i know he is capable of calling down with a K in this spot.