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Doctor, doctor, what\'s my EV?
I'm not rain man, but i beleived at the time that it was +EV to push after the flop bet/raise.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx BB ($88.35) UTG ($39.10) MP ($35.35) Hero ($48.50) SB ($29.70) Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">SB (poster) raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.25. Flop: ($5.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $15</font>, Hero calls $46.75 (All-In), SB calls $22.95 (All-In), MP calls $18.60 (All-In). Turn: ($114.05) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font> River: ($114.05) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font> Final Pot: $114.05 MP has Kd 9c (three of a kind, kings). Hero has Ad 8d (flush, ace high). SB has Jc Tc (two pair, kings and jacks). Outcome: Hero wins $114.05. I had 9 outs for the flush, 3 more for the inside straight draw, giving me a roughly 52% chance to hit the nuts (12/47 + 12/46). Actual pot when they both went all-in was $100.4 (I had the large stack and pushed), and so I effectively bet bet $35.35 (largest villain stack) to win $65.05 net profit. Is that slightly negative EV because I'm betting $35.35 to win $65.05 or am i actually betting $35.35 to win $100.4? Of course, there's always the chance of winning it right there, but those odds are not so great when 2 people have to fold. |
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