Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?

[WillMagic]

Not really. Your play is fine.

Waiting until the turn is generally best when people are going to have draws with 4-6 outs against you. That's just not going to be the case here. They are either going to have 9 outs with a flush draw or 0-3 otherwise. So just ram and jam.

Will

[HajiShirazu]

If your one goal was to protect against a gutshot straight draw then you should probably go for the turn raise, but there are more hands that can beat you than just those, and more importantly, those hands are much more likely. I'm talking about hands like the naked Q/K of spades, sevens, and pocket pairs. These are hands that can either call profitably or almost profitably for one bet but can't do so for two.
From a value standpoint I find that no one will ever fold an ace and usually won't fold any other pair if I just raise the flop. Then, they call the turn because the pot is big, and if they have an ace or sometimes even a king/worse (since these people are bad) they pay to see it on the river. And a hand like AQ-AT is hard to get away from here in a pot of this size. But when you raise the turn, even the poorer players can see the light that their hand is no good, and so you get half a bet out of them instead of three. You get a very large portion of these bets, far more than you lose to the guy with the gutshot who is costing you a few tenths of a BB with his calls.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]

If your one goal was to protect against a gutshot straight draw then you should probably go for the turn raise, but there are more hands that can beat you than just those, and more importantly, those hands are much more likely. I'm talking about hands like the naked Q/K of spades, sevens, and pocket pairs. These are hands that can either call profitably or almost profitably for one bet but can't do so for two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another very important point which I was just about to comment on. Good post.

If the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] had been the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I would be more likely to wait for the turn, since now gutshots become likely and dangerous. Right now, we CAN protect our hand on the flop from hands like pocket pairs, which are a more likely danger to us, as you point out.

[WalkAmongUs]

I'm suggesting you protect against anyone who has 2-6 outs against you. Gutshot or whatever. Wouldn't you rather protect your hand against someone who will draw out 11% of the time over protecting against someone who draws out 2 or 3% of the time?

[WillMagic]

The whole point is that you can't protect against 6 outs on the flop...you have to wait until the turn to do so.

But on this board there aren't really any six out draws, just a bunch of 2-3 out draws. Raising the flop will protect your hand against really weak draws, so raising the flop is correct.

Will

[Ice]

DreamShatter

I think your goal is to maximize your EV.IMO your going to
win more chips(maximize EV) by raising the flop. The pot is so big that most hands are going to call 2 bets on the flop.
This will tie them in on the turn since the pot has become so big.However,raising the turn is probably the best way to limit the field and maximize your chances of winning the pot.But i think your goal in poker is to win chips not pots.

Also, the more vulnerable your hand the more inclined you should be to waiting until the turn.The less vulnerable your hand the more you should want to raise.Your hand has to much pot equity to wait. Ice

[WalkAmongUs]

i see your point.

[LPalena]

Great question. Good analysis of the math. BUT, no mention of the psychology! Since everyone expects folks to wait until the Turn before betting a set, coming hard on the Flop represents a weaker hand - like Top Pair or Two Pair. Your opponents are much more likely to stay with you to the showdown. By taking a smaller amount on the Flop, ya get more in the long run. This play is similar to a semi-bluff.

I agree that NOT waiting for the turn is the best play.

Waiting for the turn is a VALUE play.

If there is a gutshot out there, we can't protect against it on the flop. Gutshot only holds ~8% equity.
8% equity on the turn is going to be = to about 1BB (8% of 10BB). But if a safe card falls on the turn, Hero's equity will be at ~70%. So 70% of the BB that the GS would have donated is Hero's; making the value in folding out the GS worth roughly .3BB or .6sb.

Hero's equity on the flop is ~60%. So Hero only needs to make an extra 1 sb by raising the flop to exceed the value of waiting for the turn.

Waiting for the turn (as W.Deranges points out) is for hands whose equity is unclear and likely lower.

But the common misconception is that waiting for the turn is to fold Gutshots.
<font color="blue">Yes. Partly. But it is also to fold hands like bottom and middle pair as well. These hands will generally have 5 outs against Hero (1pr hand) and are MORE dangerous to Hero than a 4 out gutshot. For each of these hands folded, Hero's hand will gain in value by ~10% in equity. Well worth the trade off in lost flop value.</font>

<font color="red">People who wait for the turn in this hand and when they have sets - hate money.</font>