Rate this River Bluff

#1 07-29-2005, 12:09 AM

This hand just occurred on my Party $50 NL table. What do you think?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) converter

SB ($36.25)
Hero ($65.85)
UTG ($39.50)
UTG+1 ($36.17)
UTG+2 ($49.50)
MP1 ($48.75)
MP2 ($45.75)
MP3 ($53.55)
CO ($43.25)
Button ($93.91)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50, MP3 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($12.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets $4, Button raises to $8, Hero folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $4.

Turn: ($28.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Button checks.

River: ($28.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP3 checks, Button bets $20, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: $48.25

Button shows 66

fimbulwinter · #2 07-29-2005, 02:04 AM

I like it because he picked a great board to bluff and a good spot given his opponent's likely holdings.

I don't like it because of the hand he held (which is a total bluff from the flop on) and because he risked more than he needed to.

fim

#3 07-29-2005, 02:10 AM

Thank you for replying. I liked it for the same reason you identified. I had not identified the flaws.

gulebjorn · #4 07-29-2005, 02:13 AM

I think it's stupid. Any 8 or K is calling you. A high pair might call you. This doesn't work often enough to be profitable IMO. If this guy is a great people and hand reader, this is a good play. But if he's that good, he wouldn't be playing 50$ NL.

#5 07-29-2005, 02:22 AM

Based on the betting, I had the bluffer's opponent on JT. I have no idea whether that's right. If you have JT here, isn't it possible, again, based on the betting, that you have your opponent on a range that includes KT-KQ?

Would you call here with JT? I agree that a K calls here. Not sure I'd have the stones to call with an eight, and I think I have had nightmares about having JT with this board and that river falling. Tough spot for bluffer's opponent.

Your ev reasoning makes a lot of sense. That's why I thought this one was a good one for discussion. Thanks for your thoughts.

Benholio · #6 07-29-2005, 02:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Would you call here with JT? I agree that a K calls here. Not sure I'd have the stones to call with an eight, and I think I have had nightmares about having JT with this board and that river falling. Tough spot for bluffer's opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is, unless you have reason to believe your opponent is a solid player, you can't give him credit for sharing your calling standards.

Would I call with 2 pairs here? Would I call with an 8? Not very likely. Would your average NL50 fodder do it? Thats a whole new story.

It is good to put yourself in your opponent's shoes when analyzing a hand, but don't overestimate their ability to fold, especially at lower levels.

gulebjorn · #7 07-29-2005, 02:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the betting, I had the bluffer's opponent on JT. I have no idea whether that's right. If you have JT here, isn't it possible, again, based on the betting, that you have your opponent on a range that includes KT-KQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, KT-KQ is very possible.

[ QUOTE ]
Would you call here with JT? I agree that a K calls here. Not sure I'd have the stones to call with an eight, and I think I have had nightmares about having JT with this board and that river falling. Tough spot for bluffer's opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, I don't call with anything but the high end of the straight or better if there's a four straight on the board.

If I was holding JT, I'd also bet 20 on the turn.