Pot odds Preflop in NL Hold'em

[Nacarno]

It seems to me that in books detailing plays preflop in NL Hold'em, they often recommend calling if you're getting pot odds over 2-1 heads up because you can't be that much of a dog to anything but a high pair. For example in HOH Vol. 1 problem 4-1, Harrington recommends calling an UTG raise from the BB with 76o because you're getting 3.5-1 on your call and "even if [your opponent] is holding ace-king, you're only about a 2-1 underdog at this point." Now, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't 2-1 the showdown odds against AK? What about that little something called a flop?

If you flop a pair, there's a good chance there will still be overcards out and you need to be weary of them. Chances are very low that you'll flop a straight and your draws are most likely to be charged. You can only really be happy with two pair (and that's still dangerous with lower cards) or trips. Now I'm not certain of the calculations, but it would seem that you're a bigger dog than 2-1 to hit a favorable flop (as described above) and you're likely to face more action and pressure from the UTG preflop raiser. True, implied odds may make up for some of this, but it general it seems like if you're playing against strong players, you're putting yourself in very dangerous situations. Of course, if you're an even stronger player yourself (and you'd have to be since you're out of position too), you may be able to overcome this, but I still feel like it's kinda dangerous advice to be giving most players reading these books.

Is there something I'm missing that makes this advice more correct and clear-cut? Also, is anyone aware of an odds calculator that would tell you your chances of having the best hand just on the flop? That might be more relevant to pot odds before the flop.

[JFB37]

The big issue here is how deep the stacks are. You have correctly pointed out the post-flop problem. If you call a UTG raise with something like 76o you are going to have to hit the flop pretty hard to be able to continue or have a very good read on your opponent to be able to figure out (a) when he/she misses and (b) can therefore be pushed off the hand.

However, if the stacks are deep, and your opponent will pay you off in a big pot when you hit, then seeing the flop may make sense.

The example cited seems a bit strange. Apparently UTG minraised and everyone including the sb folded?

[Nacarno]

Yeah, in the example it's a 1-table SNG with blinds of 15/30 and average stack of 1000 with the action you described. I agree that the deeper the stacks, the more likely you should be to make the call, but your opponent should be aware of your loosened calls as well making it harder to extract a lot more chips unless they're pretty bad. And still, it seems like being able to calculate the implied odds depends a lot on knowing what percentage of the time you'll be ahead (preferably by a lot) on the flop which I've never seen addressed.

[ptmusic]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, in the example it's a 1-table SNG with blinds of 15/30 and average stack of 1000 with the action you described. I agree that the deeper the stacks, the more likely you should be to make the call, but your opponent should be aware of your loosened calls as well making it harder to extract a lot more chips unless they're pretty bad. And still, it seems like being able to calculate the implied odds depends a lot on knowing what percentage of the time you'll be ahead (preferably by a lot) on the flop which I've never seen addressed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was about to post a question about implied odds needed to play small suited connectors preflop.

Maybe someone has done some math or simulations on this? Right now, I like to play them if I have more than 20bb's in my stack, I'm getting at least 10:1 implied odds (including the full stack of the smallest stack in the pot), and it is unlikely to be raised behind me.

For example, I have a good sized stack (T12,000), blinds are 100/200, and I'm in the BB w 87s. UTG raises has T10,000 and bets 600. Two callers, also with decent stacks. My pot odds are about 5:1, but my implied odds are much better than 10:1. If I hit the flop well, it's worth it, so I call.

I know it's a case by case basis, but are 10:1 implied odds enough to play suited connectors?

-ptmusic

[Nacarno]

I'm looking at Table XXI in Super/System and if you hold QJo or any connector, then your combined odds of flopping a 2 pair or better is less than 5%. Adding the probability of flopping a flush if you hold suited cards (~1%) we'll be generous and say you have a 6% chance of hitting a favorable flop. Again, being favorable, that's 15-1 odds against. So it would seem that your pot and implied odds need to be better than 15-1 to make a call with a suited connector favorable. When you consider that if connect well with a flop, very few hands (other than overpairs) are probably likely to get deeply committed to pots, and some that do (flopped sets) will have you drawing almost dead or at least have outs) I'm not sure calling is worth it.

Of course, if you're playing against very weak opponents, and the stacks are very deep, it's much easier to get money out of them, but in SNGs that generally isn't the case. Thoughts?

[Nacarno]

Oh, and this also doesn't account for the fact that doing this in the BB means you're out of position for the rest of the hand.

[Mike Cuneo]

www.cardplayer.com has an odds calculator that shows % for every street.

[ptmusic]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and this also doesn't account for the fact that doing this in the BB means you're out of position for the rest of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent points, thanks!

-ptmusic

[Nacarno]

Does it have one that shows the % that you'll have the best hand on the flop? I've only seen the one (like others) that shows, given a specific flop, your odds of winning if you stay in until the showdown.

[Piers]

These NL “pot odds” calls should come with a health warning. They are potentially profitable, however you need to be very confidant of your flop play.

You can’t justify a call just to hit two pair or better, or hope you’re given the right odds to draw. You need to be fighting on all flops of which you get piece.

If you call with 76o, and the flop is J62, your can expect to win nearly half the time at showdown. If you intend giving up on that equity you should have folded pre flop.

I think playing these marginal hands well on the flop is part of what makes the difference.