A little math help?

nik · #1 03-25-2005, 11:17 AM

Playing in a tourney a few weeks ago. Got dealt AA, make the standard raise, and get put all in my the chip leader. He turns over KK. Flop comes down A, 7, 9 rainbow. I'm feeling very good at this point. No flush possibilities. The turn comes K. The River comes K. I'm having nightmare's about this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What are the odds of him catching running kings?

gamble4pro · #2 03-25-2005, 11:36 AM

1/C(47,2)=1/1081

nik · #3 03-25-2005, 12:14 PM

I knew that the odds were pretty small. Thanks for the quick answer. The worst part of the beat was the guy telling me over and over again that I shouldn't have called. What a tool.

MustangMarc · #4 03-25-2005, 08:40 PM

The number of unseen cards is 45, not 47. We see the opponents KK, the hero's AA, and three cards on the flop, which leaves 45 unseen cards.

That improves the odds slightly to 1/990.

Guess he had you just where he wanted you on the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

For those that want to see the full arithmetic, here it is. The chance of the first king is 2/45. The chance of the second is 1/44.
Multiply the two gives 2 / (45 * 44).
Dividing top and bottom by 2 give 1 / (45 * 22) or 1 / 990.