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#1
12-13-2005, 05:08 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
So I decided to bet. It didn't feel completely right since him betting the flop then checking the turn seems to be him wanting to go to showdown as cheap as possible. Slight chance of him trying something on the flop and now gave up, but not worth it. Anyway, action went, check, bet, check-raise, call. Now the river brings the 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], for a board of 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. He checks. Now what? I can't really see any reason to bet here. Are there any? [/ QUOTE ] Totally baffled, which makes this a check for me. After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close. His line is very confusing to me. I can't figure out what this guy would have to play the hand this way. Maybe K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with a 5 or 6? 
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#2
12-13-2005, 05:23 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close. [/ QUOTE ] It seems close because you think he'll fold this turn one time out of five. I don't think he folds anywhere near that often.
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#4
12-13-2005, 06:22 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] After reading the replies, there are some convincing reasons to check the turn, but it seems close. [/ QUOTE ] It seems close because you think he'll fold this turn one time out of five. I don't think he folds anywhere near that often. [/ QUOTE ] Fair enough. I just realized I have no idea what 36/53 means in the 1st post, and that may be a sees showdown stat that will affect the turn play. If we estimate that we have 10 outs and we're behind, we have 21 % equity. So the possibility of a check-raise is the difference, and we check through.
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#5
12-13-2005, 07:14 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. I just realized I have no idea what 36/53 means in the 1st post, and that may be a sees showdown stat that will affect the turn play. [/ QUOTE ] I must learn to include the meaning of those numbers. It's WSD and W$SD. How often the opponent goes to showdown and how often he wins at showdown.
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#6
12-13-2005, 07:39 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
It's WSD and W$SD. [/ QUOTE ] Is W$SD over 80 hands more useful than knowing Villain's shoe size? Villain plays 80 hands, sees maybe 50 flops, takes 18 hands to showdown, and wins 10 of them. Showdown win rate measures the overall consequences of a player's style and thus must converge very slowly. Pots are primarily distributed by luck. W$SD is similar to win rate in this respect. Contrast that with a stat like PFR% which converges much faster because it directly measures player's decisions instead of the consequences of those decisions.
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#7
12-13-2005, 07:53 PM
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Re: Turn action
Great posts Stellar, I think you're reasoning and thinking here is similar to mine(After my 2nd post when i considered it more and wasn't playing at prima).
I do think its a VERY close Check or bet and on the "battle ground" you can't really factor in everything we have so there isn't a BAD decision to be made(Except fold). On a side note, What the hell is HIJACK?
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#8
12-13-2005, 08:49 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
On a side note, What the hell is HIJACK? [/ QUOTE ] The Button+2 seat, analogous to Cutoff being Button+1. I don't know why it's called that but I like the term because it has an objective meaning, whereas terms like MP and UTG depend on the number of players which makes them inconvenient for discussing first-in preflop play.
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#9
12-13-2005, 07:58 PM
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Re: Turn action
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's WSD and W$SD. [/ QUOTE ] Is W$SD over 80 hands more useful than knowing Villain's shoe size? Villain plays 80 hands, sees maybe 50 flops, takes 18 hands to showdown, and wins 10 of them. Showdown win rate measures the overall consequences of a player's style and thus must converge very slowly. Pots are primarily distributed by luck. W$SD is similar to win rate in this respect. Contrast that with a stat like PFR% which converges much faster because it directly measures player's decisions instead of the consequences of those decisions. [/ QUOTE ] I don't "rely" on WSD and W$SD until I have at least 700+ hands. I guess I just included them out of habit.
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