NFL WEEK1 BETS

[Steve09797]

just curious what everyone thinks for the first week of the n.f.l. Is it worth betting new england at - 7.5? i dont know

[craig r]

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just curious what everyone thinks for the first week of the n.f.l. Is it worth betting new england at - 7.5? i dont know

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No, it is not worth it. I have no opinion on this game, but you could have gotten NE at 7 a couple of days ago and bought it down to 6.5. A half point might not seem like much, but on a key number, it is huge.

craig

Craig, what estimates do you have for the probability that a favorite near 7 wins by 7? and what are these sources?

[craig r]

Okay, since 90-03 a team that is favored by exactly 7 wins by exactly 7 5.3% of the time. I don't know what you mean by "near 7". Do you mean 7.5 and 6.5? Or even more points? It is generally excepted knowledge that on the 3 you almost always buy off of it for no more than 20 cents and on the 7 you almost always buy off of it for 10 cents or less. I mean if this wasn't the case, why do you think the books are always so hesitant to move off of the 3 or 7?

And one other thing, if you are new at this and do not know how to figure your edge.....you should NEVER bet a game at a worse line than you could have gotten (not directed towards you). I never do. If 4 was available and I liked the fav and it moved to 5..i would NEVER bet the 5.

craig

Who are you talking to, me? New at this? I just wanted to know what sources you use to determine how often a team favored by 7 (or near 7) wins by 7. lol I am quite confident of the number I use.

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(not directed towards you)

[/ QUOTE ] Missed that, never mind.

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I mean if this wasn't the case, why do you think the books are always so hesitant to move off of the 3 or 7?

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Yes, that is the case. 3 is a critical number in the NFL. I think 7 gets a little more credit than it should, however. Important, yes to a degree, but not critical. Just trying to spark a little debate.

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If 4 was available and I liked the fav and it moved to 5..i would NEVER bet the 5

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For the purpose of debate, why? Unless you assume you're going to win every bet you make, if the move is +EV with respect to the line offered at each number, why not save money in those 45% of games you're going to lose? It impacts profit and loss in the long run like anything else.

I will admit though that I don't do what you describe above very often. In fact, I'm more likely to take extra points for underdogs esp. if I end up betting them in money lines.

[craig r]

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If 4 was available and I liked the fav and it moved to 5..i would NEVER bet the 5

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For the purpose of debate, why? Unless you assume you're going to win every bet you make, if the move is +EV with respect to the line offered at each number, why not save a money in those 45% of games you're going to lose? It impacts profit and loss in the long run like anything else.

I will admit though that I don't do what you describe above very often. In fact, I'm more likely to take extra points for underdogs esp. if I end up betting them in money lines.

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Well, if 50% of capping is line shopping, why would I bet a worse line than what was available? Also, on non-key numbers we can SAFELY assume that each point is worth .75% advantage (it is actually more, but I want to keep it safe). I am not willing to give up .75% of an edge. Especially when you have to win 52.38% to just break even. Every half point matters. If we could place 500 bets in a season (obviously theoretical) and I found a book that would let me have a point in any direction I wanted, who would win more bets, you or me? Even if one of the rules was they wouldn't do this on 3, 7, or 10.

craig

p.s. I know this is just for debate. I don't feel like we are arguing.

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Well, if 50% of capping is line shopping, why would I bet a worse line than what was available?

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If both were offered at the same vig or just slightly different (say -4 -110 vs -5 -107) then there's no debate. I read your statement to mean you'd never give extra points as a fave even if the odds changed a bit in your favor, i.e. always take the fewer number of points to give nearly regardless of what you needed to pay in vig.

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on non-key numbers we can SAFELY assume that each point is worth .75% advantage (it is actually more, but I want to keep it safe). I am not willing to give up .75% of an edge.

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If the price is wrong, I agree, never. If the price is in your favor, you should. The percentage of games that hit the exact number or within a 1/2 or 1 point of a game's line is in the mid single digits (not counting 3 in this analysis, that's an entirely different situation). Sometimes taking a worse line is more favorable if the vig price is right.

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Every half point matters.

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Sometimes the lower vig price (or +100+ price) matters more. It's really a case by case basis analysis.

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If we could place 500 bets in a season (obviously theoretical) and I found a book that would let me have a point in any direction I wanted, who would win more bets, you or me?

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Assuming we bet on the same teams in the same games, you would naturally. That's not what I thought you were asserting in your previous post.

[craig r]

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Every half point matters.



Sometimes the lower vig price (or +100+ price) matters more. It's really a case by case basis analysis.

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You are exactly right. Of course the price is important as well. For example +3 +140 is better than +3.5 ev. Obviously this is just an extreme example.

craig

We're more or less agreeing. My original post came in response to the idea that 7 is this all-important number like 3, which I don't believe it is. We're way off that track now and that's fine.

I suppose from my picks thread I gave the impression I frequently give points to get better prices. It really does vary from bet to bet and often I take points at higher, but more favorable, prices. Those that think they're going to win nearly every game probably don't care about pricing per se, but only about getting the most favorable lines possible. If the final result fell as close to the line as often as is thought, then I'd agree more with this position, but it's much rarer than believed (outside of 3 obviously).