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#11
12-07-2005, 09:06 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand you can check as your behind every heart, But if you check a weak heart WILL GO TO SHOWDOWN. if you beat he may fold one. [/ QUOTE ] There's no way he's folding a flush here. 
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#12
12-08-2005, 05:56 AM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
[ QUOTE ]
Easy bet. [/ QUOTE ] Am I missing something. We bet on the assumption he has no heart. If he doesn't have one yet he is about 4-1 not to get one on the river, either. So we're protecting a hand that's a pretty big favorite even if we do nothing. And a river heart is only a chop of a still smallish pot. If we are right that he doesn't have a heart a bet that causes villain to fold has about +0.5 BB EV. If he does have a heart then we'll assume it costs us 2 BB, but we've got the 10 outs to beat his flush so we'll get that 2 BB back a little better than 20 percent of the time. Still that's a bit more than -1 BB EV, though. (But hey, if he has a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or both then another [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] will allow us to chop, I suppose that brings us back to just -1 for our EV.) That leaves the question of how often he has a heart. For a starting point in any two cards it's about 3 to 2 against having a specific suit. So against an opponent playing a random two the bet is already a loser. And clearly villain had a reason for deciding to contest this pot, which could have included a few things other than a heart but nowhere near enough to make me want to bet this turn.
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#13
12-08-2005, 06:41 AM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
if villain has a heart he most likely would not have bet into the PFR. He probably has a pair and wants the PFR to raise it to protect it from hearts.
But that's speculation. Who knows if the villain has a heart. But I'd say there's a >50% chance that the hero is still ahead. and even if he isn't it's not like villain is going to check raise a 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . Bet it for value and check behind the river. also, the 3 to 2 against having a suit odds doesn't work because his hand isn't "random", there are only 9 hearts left.
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#14
12-08-2005, 06:51 AM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] On the other hand you can check as your behind every heart, But if you check a weak heart WILL GO TO SHOWDOWN. if you beat he may fold one. [/ QUOTE ] There's no way he's folding a flush here. [/ QUOTE ] You assumed "No one will fold" in a few posts i've seen. If hero bets, I'm not 100% sure about a 2:hearts: calling ALL THE TIME.
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#15
12-08-2005, 08:56 AM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
I think I check/Call river... unless you get a boat. That could be wrong.
I get one bet when I win with AAA. (X%) I get two bets when I win with a boat (20%) I only lose one bet when he has the heart/river quads him assuming he has a set too. (80%-X) SFWUSC
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#16
12-08-2005, 12:59 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] On the other hand you can check as your behind every heart, But if you check a weak heart WILL GO TO SHOWDOWN. if you beat he may fold one. [/ QUOTE ] There's no way he's folding a flush here. [/ QUOTE ] You assumed "No one will fold" in a few posts i've seen. If hero bets, I'm not 100% sure about a 2:hearts: calling ALL THE TIME. [/ QUOTE ] A small heart calls most of the time in a heads up pot. They call down in multiway pots when they have even less chance of winning with the one heart flush (they call with a pair sometimes in a multiway pot with a 4-flush on the board), why wouldn't they also call here?
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#17
12-08-2005, 01:05 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
Shillx mentioned in a similar hand a few months ago that the only problem with checking behind on the turn here is that there is a reasonable chance that the river brings a 5th heart in which case the best we can do is tie (do you call a bet if the 5th heart comes on the river playing the board?).
Because the pot is only 5BB I think a check, planning to call/raise the river depending on whether you improve is fine. In a larger pot I think you need to bet the turn to protect your hand.
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#18
12-08-2005, 01:09 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
I think you can check here and call any river bet (raising a paired board obviously).
The issue as I see it. He is probably only calling our bet with a flush, and possibly c/r'ing us with a good flush in a position where we can't fold since we have so many outs to improve. I think we're putting in more bets when behind then what we're getting paid off while ahead.
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#19
12-08-2005, 01:13 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
[ QUOTE ]
I think you can check here and call any river bet (raising a paired board obviously). The issue as I see it. He is probably only calling our bet with a flush, and possibly c/r'ing us with a good flush in a position where we can't fold since we have so many outs to improve. I think we're putting in more bets when behind then what we're getting paid off while ahead. [/ QUOTE ]
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#20
12-08-2005, 01:24 PM
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Re: What else am I doing with these aces??
bet
He may fold a flush (unlikely). Call with a worse hand. Fold a hand with 9 outs. Krishan
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