Can I raise this river?

wheelz · #1 08-19-2005, 10:44 PM

Villain is unknown.

Prima Poker 25/50 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, 1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Turn: (5.5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls.

River: (13.5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero...

vmacosta · #2 08-20-2005, 06:48 AM

Yup.

oreogod · #3 08-20-2005, 07:11 AM

I would stop [censored] my gf in mid-hump to raise that river. You have nothing to worry about, except getting the most money possible from an overpair.

schwing!

Pepsquad · #4 08-20-2005, 07:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is unknown.

Prima Poker 25/50 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, 1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Turn: (5.5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls.

River: (13.5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. You can't raise this river. He went through the pains of CHECK-RAISING AND capping you on the turn and continues at the river. He sees those two 9's out there just as well as you do. If he doesn't have one, you can bet he sure as sh*t knows that you do...and doesn't care. You ARE beat here against a good player (which we have to assume given he's an unknown).

peachy · #5 08-20-2005, 10:02 AM

yes raise the river...if hes got a PP that he hit a set on then so be it but more than likely hes got a higher PP (but he did check raise u can go nuts on that turn so he doesnt seem worried about the 9 but he might not figure u for that 9)...so im raising...if ur worried about him just call

wheelz · #6 08-20-2005, 12:29 PM

Really? I didn't think raising was that easy. Yeah he could have a high PP, but like pepsquad said, he sees the two nines on the board too... I opened from the CO so me having a 9 is a definite possibility, I raised him on the flop, 3-bet his turn check raise and he still caps and leads the river... don't you think an overpair slows down after I 3-bet the turn? Would be a lot clearer if it wasn't his second hand at the table I guess.

#7 08-20-2005, 01:00 PM

I think the key to this hand lies in the preflop play.

They only hands that can beat you is 44, 66, 94 and 96. Would this player make it tree bets preflop with these hands? I wouldn't! But some players would, play 66 that way, that may be why he attacked on the turn. Thought the same type of players would play AA, KK, QQ, JJ and even TT that way.
If you make the raise and he has a big pocket pair you will gain an extra BB, if he has 66 you would lose 2 BB.
Since the chance of AA, KK, QQ, JJ or TT against 66 is 1:5 and your winning:losing is 1:2, I would make the raise.

Martin Carlsson
Aalborg Denmark

Weatherhead03 · #8 08-20-2005, 06:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since the chance of AA, KK, QQ, JJ or TT against 66 is 1:5 and your winning:losing is 1:2, I would make the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also the fact that there are only 3 ways to make 66 compared to 6 to make the other high PPs. Which changes the odds to 10-1 does it not?

Trix · #9 08-20-2005, 07:03 PM

If the average unknown in those games are decent, then I dont think you can. I think he has 66/44 alot after the turncap.

Stork · #10 08-20-2005, 07:17 PM

It doesn't matter that he is 10:1 more likely to have an overpair than 66 before the flop. This does not account for the new information you've been given on the flop and turn. I can't imagine he caps the turn with an overpair. Your turn 3-bet told him you have at least trips. I think it is much more likely he has 66 than an overpair, with 44 also being a possibility. I don't think you can raise the river here.