AA on the BB

[paulish]

It's a full 9 handed table and everybody has an equal amount of chips. UTG pushes all-in, then all the other players call all-in as well. You're in the BB looking down at AA. What do you do in the following situations:
A) Final table of the WSOP main event
B) First Day in the WSOP main even
C) A High Stakes Cash game

[K C]

You can't throw away this hand unless you've got a situation such as you owe a bunch of money to the mob and if you lose your stack Joey is waiting outside to bump you off [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

KC

[spaminator101]

the only way this many players is going to call all in as well is if they have high pocket pairs or just very bad players with this many people AA is going to get beat too often to make it profitable and its just too big of a risk at a tournement

[bdohaney]

I don't see how anyone can advocate folding here. You are looking at 8-1 pot odds on a hand that pre-flop you are ahead, and after the flop are fairly likely to remain so. Yes, most of the other players are holding pocket pairs, all of which are underdogs to you preflop.

[Amerretto]

Okay cash game I would call, because I've got cash in the back pocket, and because of my rich aunties will I can always rebuy in.

First day at WSOP, do I really want to push here and walk, even though I am ahead the chances are I'm still going to lose, Lets fight another day.

Last day at WSOP, I will go down in history, as the man that folded AA at the final table. But hey I don't care, I have just come in a guaranteed 3rd, barring splits. That extra cash would sure come in handy at the 50/1 limit tables. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i don't understand the question the guy came at you with an all in bet into the best starting hand why wouldn't you call every sigle time...even in a tournament? i don't think any mathmatics could justify a lay down

[Artsemis]

Because AA is a big favorite over KK, but throw in QQ, JJ, 10J, 45, 22 in for the other 5 opponents and while you are still the favorite person to win, one of the other 6 players is going to win the majority of the time.

People dont like the thought that the majority of the time, they are going to bust like that.

My response?

Cash game: Call, you can rebuy if necessary and you have good odds, which is what matters.

First Day WSOP: Call, this is about accumulation and survival at this point. A win would give you an amazing start, a loss doesn't lose you anymore than you may lose anyways - after all, this might be your biggest chance!

Final table WSOP: I may have to lay it down in this situation, as that would nearly guarantee me a much higher payout. However, if you aren't concerned about the money as much as the bracelet - call.

[RiverDood]

The first two are obvious calls. You may not be the favorite, but your odds are way better than 1/9. The table is bathed in +EV. Anyone who isn't an insta-push ought to retreat to the world of passbook savings accounts.

The third one is interesting. This year, 9th place at the WSOP final table pays $1 million. Payouts slowly ramp up to the point that 3rd place pays $2.5 million. Second is $4.5 million and first is $7.5 million.

If I fold in your final table scenario, I'm very likely to finish 2nd, with everyone else busting out except the winner of this megapot, who will almost surely win the whole thing. There's a small risk of 3rd for me if two people chop the mega-pot. And there's still a sliver of chance that in two-way or three-way action after the mega-pot, my small stack could prevail.

Let's assume my AA has a 35% chance of winning everything if I push and a 65% chance of going bust. (That's about right for 9 random hands.) Then my expected outcome is (0.35*$7.5m) + (0.65*$1.75 million) -- the assumed blended rate for everyone who busts out. (2nd through 9th place money will be commingled and paid out as one equally sized prize.)

Overall, my expected return if I play is equal to $2.62m+$1.13m, or a total of $3.75m.

If I fold, let's assume there's an 80% chance of a single winner for the megapot, and a 20% chance that two people chop it. Then my expected outcome is ($4.5m*0.8)+($2.5m*0.2). That's equal to $3.6m+$0.5m, or $4.1m. In these calculations, I'm being conservative and assuming there's no chance of bootstrapping my way into first with a small stack.

So I'm ahead folding. That's true even if I think there's a 30% chance that the pot will be chopped. Only if I think there's something approaching a 40% chance of a chopped pot should I play on.

Bracelets are nice, but for a $500,000 difference in EV, I'll take the money and run. Besides, if I really want a bracelet, I've now got a ton of money to pay entry fees for tournament after tournanment the rest of my life.

Interesting query.

[Wacken]

Cash game: Obviously call for its +EV.

first day: Obviously fold, you don't want to be out yet and you have 70% or more chance to be out.

Final table: Fold, let half the players drop out on this hand and you are that much higher on the list now. This however is the only one where i would actually have to think about it. The others are sure fold and calls.

Funny thing that the poll shows the average reader thinks otherwise. I think there is hope for me to get to the final table in wsop someday. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Final table: Fold, let half the players drop out on this hand and you are that much higher on the list now. This however is the only one where i would actually have to think about it. The others are sure fold and calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Final table this is an easy, easy fold. Everyone all in? I will be moving up multiple places on the money list. That could be a 500k-1m hand that I just get to sit back, watch, and make money on.

b