Simple push bot question

[HiatusOver]

UTG 8-handed...my stack is 4840, the tourney average is 7000. Blinds 300-600. I expect calling ranges of my opponents to be significantly tight because the table is playing tight and it will be a decent chunk of anyones stack.

My hand is 44. Is this a push? If not what pair starts to be a push? If so, how much lower do u go?

[gumpzilla]

My first guess is that it's probably an iffy push, just because UTG 8-handed isn't such a great spot. How tight do you consider them here? Let's say you'll get called with a range of 99+, AQ-AK, which I think is a reasonable range in this steal-heavy part of a tournament. That's 68/1225 for about 5% of hands. So as a rough estimate, you're going to get called about 35% of the time, and your equity when you get called is about 35%. 65% of the time you profit 1.5 BBs, 35% of the time you are losing about 2 BBs, so it looks like it might be slightly +chip EV. I think I'd rather wait until later position, usually. And apologies if the math is off, I'm trying to do it roughly in my head.

puuuuuuush
the problem with waiting for a better spot is that once you're on the button you'll have gone through the blinds, so if you steal the blinds there you're just back to where you started now. Take all the EV you can get and push!

[Exitonly]

i think i'm pushing any pair, AT and up. That'll give you like 35% equity atleast, get called 35%, blinds will call more often, so i'll round to 40% so

60% you win 2 BB's for +1.2
40% you win 35% of 10BB pot. +3.5
you lose 65% of 8BB's -5.2
= not what i expected. Whoops, i thoguht this would be profitable. It appears i have to tighten up my pushing.

*note, unless i'm too un-sober to do correct math.

edit:

LEFT OUT A STEP.

40% * -1.7bb's + 60% * 1.2bb's
-0.68 + 0.72 = +0.04


Still think i [censored] something up. But atleast it confirmed to me that it's +cEV like i thoguoht.

i stand by AT+, any pair, KJ+, QJs.JTs.

[bugstud]

define tight, if you got a decent chance of a walk or a sb push next orbit and then some relentless stealing, I might muck here. I tend to push before thinking, tho.

[betgo]

Assuming no ante, if you push and get called by a higher pair, you win 20% of 13.5 BBs or 2.7 BBs for a loss of 3.3 BBs. You gain 1.5 BBs if you pick up the pot and about the same if you are called by over cards. If you work out the rest of the math, this is easily EV+.

I would generally push any pp, KQ, AT+, A8s+, most or all suited broadway cards, and probably a lot of suited connectors and gappers.

In close situations, I would go by strategic considerations and how the table is playing.

[HiatusOver]

I mean, not sickly tight...but the calling ranges mentioned here are about right...maybe add 88 and AJs? If this is chip EV I think I need to do it though at this point

[MrTimCaum]

I'd probably need 66 or 77+ and AQo+ to make this push. Earlier this year I used to push weaker hands short UTG at full tables and two things would happen:

1) I'd bust
2) Adanthar would yell at me on AIM, telling me how bad my push was.


I think the important thing to note is that you simply will not get called by a hand that you're well ahead of (unless a huge donk gets involved). 22, 33, A2, A3, and A4 would be the only hands you'd love to see a call from, and how often is that going to happen?

Except in the rare case about, you'll just going to be happy to get call from a coinflip hand. You might get 55-88 to fold, but the rest will call and you'll be cooked.

[nath]

Are there antes?

I'm pushing any pair in this spot, personally. Yeah it can suck when you get called but it really doesn't happen that often and you gotta take some chances when you're short stacked.
(If you were looking for a "philosophy" argument rather than a "math" one.)

[HiatusOver]

Bump, do we have an answer to this yet?