KQo - Who's raising the river?

synbad13 · #1 09-03-2005, 01:46 AM

No reads on Villain

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero ?.

I'm thinking maybe he has a set... did I let nightmares of a big hand keep me from re-raising? Regardless of what he showed down, he could have made a str8 although that's unlikely and I now beat other 2pair hands. I sure don't want to get 3bet

What would you do on the end?

Harv72b · #2 09-03-2005, 01:51 AM

Against an unknown, I just call the river bet & make a note on what he had. A turn check/raise usually means something big, and it's hard to imagine too many 2-pair hands on this board that a normal player would coldcall with preflop. The fact that you can't fold to a 3-bet also pushes me toward calling.

paperboyNC · #3 09-03-2005, 01:58 AM

I'd just call on the end. The queen likely changes nothing.

KDawgCometh · #4 09-03-2005, 02:03 AM

I'm just calling. If we raise we are gonna pay off a three bet, to which we are certainly beat, which could very well happen here often enough to suck. This is definetly one of those situations where I want a cheap showdown after the turn CR(and CR bluffs at this limit on the turn are sooooo rare), and be sure to take note on what the villian turns up here

synbad13 · #5 09-03-2005, 02:18 AM

Interesting, I figured I would get a response or two in favor of raising.

W. Deranged · #6 09-03-2005, 02:40 AM

I's don't be findin' a raise her...

On the turn our villain could have:

-A set (3 x set threes, fours, sixes; one very unlikely set Ks; 9-10 total)
-Two pair (18 versions of Ks up; 27 other kinds of two pairs)
-A straight (16 versions of 75 and 16 versions of 52)
-Other draws, pair + draw hands, etc... let's say we weight this at like 14 hands for normal players).

Of the ~100 (neat how I did that, ehh...) we are now beating like 59 of them...

BUT... which of these will call a river raise? Not all the draws! So now we are behind the 32 straights and the 10ish sets, and some number of pairish hands... It's close regardless but I don't think we get there.

EDIT: particularly considering we're probably not folding to a three-bet and so we're risking more than 1 bet to win 1.

Ninth Path · #7 09-03-2005, 05:39 AM

I'll be the first. I raise.
I see a lot of AKo here...tons of party players just cold call even in position with AKo, or I often see myself having sucked out on an ugly, ugly, two pair. The other benefit of raising (and I actually think this is a big reason) -- you probably won't get 3 bet, because even if villain has a set, he'll probably figure you rivered a set.