AA fold preflop?

[the_joker]

You may have an argument for folding if you were up against 9 bad players, but against 9 pros this is a dream hand this is the type of situation you want.

[Chykynlyps]

i agree that i would like the situation - i have just been two outed on the river way to often lately to be calling this

[Justin A]

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you're chance to win is greater than the pot equity you have.

edit: hrmm... that doesn't sound right. Someone correct me please

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That would be the argument if it was cash game

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Lol, that wouldn't be the argument because your chance to win and equity in the pot are the same thing. What he was trying to say is your equity is much greater than the money you're putting in.

[mrpurple]

I'd call and expect to see aces in the hand of the 2nd guy who called the all in.

I'd also seriously suspect we may inadvertainly be playing with a pinnochle deck.

[Guthrie]

If not now, when?

[otnemem]

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with four people all-in in front of you, the probability that one of them draws out may be too much of a chance - how many outs do you have versus the number of outs of the entire rest of the all-in crowd?

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i agree that i would like the situation - i have just been two outed on the river way to often lately to be calling this

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These are two of the stupidest things I've ever seen in writing. With aces, your not counting "outs" because you're already ahead of any hand that's calling you. And you can't base a call with the best hand on what's happened to you recently...

[cookie]

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with four people all-in in front of you, the probability that one of them draws out may be too much of a chance - how many outs do you have versus the number of outs of the entire rest of the all-in crowd?

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3-people

how would it be if ir was a party 10 $ SnG?

[tripdad]

when you play against pros who are much more skilled in post flop play, it is always best to get your money in before the flop with premium hands. they cannot outplay AA, they can only outflop it.***i beleive this is the rationale behind sklansky's push or fold system he outlined in TOP(or was it TPFAP?)***

ni han!

[pzhon]

Your goal is to make money, not to survive the hand.

If you call, then against one distribution of your opponents' hands, your equity is 60.4%. (1st opponent: AA-88, AK, AQ. 2nd opponent: AA-JJ, AK. 3rd opponent: AA-QQ, AK. I used PokerStove.) That 60.4% comes from some wins and some ties, usually against another AA, but for simplicity assume that you quadruple up 60% of the time and lose 40%.

The independent chip model says that if you quadruple up, you take first 40.0% of the time, second 26.7%, and third 16.7% of the time. That is worth 31.3% of the prize pool. (You have 4 times the number of chips, but you are only about 3 times as happy as you were at the start.) You get this 60% of the time, for an average value of 18.8% of the prize pool from calling.

If you fold, you survive 100% of the time. Assume there is no tie, and two players get knocked out. By the independent chip model, you win 10.0%, you place second 11.0%, and you place third 11.8%. Your expected share of the prize pool is 10.6%.

You should call. According to these models, it is right by about 8.2% of the prize pool, about 3/4 of a buy-in. That is huge. If you fold, you are throwing away the amount of profit a good player expects to make over several tournaments.

If you are a losing player, folding AA will save you time. However, it would be even more efficient to transfer all of your money to me.

[cookie]

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Your goal is to make money, not to survive the hand.

If you call, then against one distribution of your opponents' hands, your equity is 60.4%. (1st opponent: AA-88, AK, AQ. 2nd opponent: AA-JJ, AK. 3rd opponent: AA-QQ, AK. I used PokerStove.) That 60.4% comes from some wins and some ties, usually against another AA, but for simplicity assume that you quadruple up 60% of the time and lose 40%.

The independent chip model says that if you quadruple up, you take first 40.0% of the time, second 26.7%, and third 16.7% of the time. That is worth 31.3% of the prize pool. (You have 4 times the number of chips, but you are only about 3 times as happy as you were at the start.) You get this 60% of the time, for an average value of 18.8% of the prize pool from calling.

If you fold, you survive 100% of the time. Assume there is no tie, and two players get knocked out. By the independent chip model, you win 10.0%, you place second 11.0%, and you place third 11.8%. Your expected share of the prize pool is 10.6%.

You should call. According to these models, it is right by about 8.2% of the prize pool, about 3/4 of a buy-in. That is huge. If you fold, you are throwing away the amount of profit a good player expects to make over several tournaments.

If you are a losing player, folding AA will save you time. However, it would be even more efficient to transfer all of your money to me.

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Thx it was exactly something like that I was looking for