92.7% sure that my hand is best, but is a call more profitable?

ThePenguin · #1 03-16-2005, 10:35 PM

I thought about betting the turn too. Thoughts on all streets appreciated, though my main concern is the river.
BB is tight, the others are loose.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $4.
1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, MP3 (poster) calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (5.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, Button checks.

River: (5.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero...

eh923 · #2 03-16-2005, 10:41 PM

I'd just call and hope for overcalls. The pot is small, so I can't see anyone calling two cold with weak hands. And with 3 people left to act, you could easily get a caller or two without putting in an extra bet.

Roland19 · #3 03-16-2005, 10:45 PM

I really like an overcall here, too. This is one of those rare situations where this actually figures to be much more profitable than raising, so I say do it.

bilbo-san · #4 03-16-2005, 10:46 PM

Call hoping for overcalls. It's really unlikely anyone has a K or J here, so who would call a raise?

That said, I bet this turn. If you are ahead (and you probably are), why give any Q or A (or 9!) a free card?? The river would also be a lot easier to play if you had bet.

eh923 · #5 03-16-2005, 10:55 PM

I forgot to put this in my first reply...but I don't think twice about checking the turn. I also wouldn't think twice about folding had it been bet ahead of me. Our hero has 4th pair against 4 opponents and all of the overcards are broadway cards.

I'm normally pretty aggressive post-flop when I'm the pre-flop raiser. But I don't do it all the time. This is a good example of when to slow down.

Of course, I'm ignoring leading out on the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Roland19 · #6 03-16-2005, 10:56 PM

With so many people in the pot, I don't think there is any chance that our 88 is good versus three overcards. I say just keep checking and hope for a free showdown. As it happened we got lucky and spiked a set on the river, and should therefore call and hope for overcalls. However, I don't think betting this turn would be a very good idea.

sean c · #7 03-16-2005, 11:03 PM

Limp pre flop if you r only playing this hand for a set. Since you raised fire one off on the flop for two reasons. To see if you can thin the field and maybe improve your position. I assume you raised to give your hand a chance to win unimproved so I would follow up on that on the flop.

Catt · #8 03-16-2005, 11:04 PM

I really doubt it makes too much of a difference, frankly, though I'd favor a call slightly. With this action, I'd be willing to wager that you're not going to get any overcalls (maybe one at the most) and I also think the BB is likely to fold to a raise - so I'd call and pray for an overcall.

ThePenguin · #9 03-16-2005, 11:32 PM

Thanks for everyone's insight. As for firing away on the flop, I would usually do this HU or against two opponents, especially if one of them is in the blinds and he checks to me. However, against four callers, I think that I'm most likely behind on the flop.

BreakEvenPlayer · #10 03-17-2005, 05:48 AM

Bet this flop bro... If they all fold 8% of the time you've made money. If you narrow it down to a couple callers you've made your turn check an easy decision rather than the no-man's-land you found your self in on the turn.

3/6 players aren't the most observant creatures in the world, but checking flops after raising PF is asking someone to pick on you down the road.