Coin flip middle of a tourney, do you take it?

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Thinking now i should have made it about 2k and see what he does, wouldnt have looked so desperate

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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Don't even consider reraising 40% of your stack with AK. What happens when you miss the flop (as you will 2/3 of the time) and he bets into you?

Given stack v. blind sizes in this hand, if you're going to raise it needs to be a push.

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I think there are some merits in re-raising with say, 1500-1800 in this specific situation. Miini-raises can range from slow-played monsters to probing bets by mid-PPs trying to get a feel where they stand. By re-raising you are representing a big hand. If villain re-raises, muck, lick your wounds hoping to get a decent hand with your short stack. In the buy-ns that I play, I have yet to encounter a re-re-raise below JJ, Ditto if he calls and bets out on the flop. However, there is the likelihood (I'm not a math guy and don't know how to calculate this) that villain checks if the flop contains overcards to his PP or misses with his AK, AQ or maybe AJ which I can then take advantage of by pushing. I also find that in lower buy-ins it is quite often to see insta-call of pushes with small/mid-PPs. These are the players who are either afraid or indecisive to play post-flop and most likely check if flop is missed.

Correct me please, if my thought process is convoluted.

Your tournament situation dictates that you look for a "coin flip" - you're below average stack and M is 10ish. But if I'm going to flip I either want the heavy end of the coin, some fold equity, or some significant dead money - none of that applies. You're a dog to his range, the blinds don't give you pot odds when called, and he raised UTG+1 for 20% of his stack - he's not going any where. I think you call here and play postflop - your chip EV on a call-pre/fold-post is about the same as your push and you may not have to fold.

Making it 2k for what reason? Your not folding if he sticks in the extra 1k? And if a bigger stack comes in and reraises you, you have shoved in almost 50% and are committed anyway. Just go all-in your like 50/50 against his range if you include AQ assuming no FE, but you do have FE if he's a good player.

I raise to about 2400-3000 this way im committing my stack and it looks a little more like I have kk/aa. I'm not throwing this away and I'd rather not call and see if flop considering I only have 16BB

[Dave D]

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Last night in the 7.5k bodog I had a situation come up which has got me a lot recently and wanted to get some takes on it.

I am a very very tight player and it is not untypical for me to go 45 minutes at a time without playing a hand. When i do push I hope that my tight image counts for something, but I dont think a lot of people even notice table image.

Last night the blinds were at 150/300. The average stack was about 5500. i was sitting in seat 7 with with AKo at about 4800.

Utg+1 was sitting on about 3800 in chips. He mini-raises to 600. From his past play I put him on a range of (AK-AQ to 77-JJ).

I do not want to call the 600 because that will get me down to 4800. After his bet he is at 3200 so he does have some fold equity.

Now this is where I have problems. I am about 40% sure he has AK, probably AQ and about 60% he has a mid pair.

I am thinking he does not want to risk all his chips going heads up with me because I know my image is as tight as can be.

What should i do here,
A)save my chips for a better time?
B) call and see a flop? but what if dont hit the flop then i have no idea where i am.
C)Push all in, hope he folds and if not the worst I am is a coin flip. But do I want to take a coin flip at this time?

When is the propert time to make an all in push with a coinflip likely?

what would you do?

I pushed, he thought for a moment then called, flipped over 99 which held up and shortly after I was out when my 77 could not hold off an A8

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Don't tell us results until later, it biases replies/will get you fewer replies.

You're right, donks online barely notice table image, it's annoying but whatever.

I think it's definatly fine to push or call here, it really depends on you as a player. Personally I think I'd have called here and seen the flop. I like that line better just b/c it lets me hide my hand, and probably wins me more in the long run compared to pushing (which probably would often get a fold). You have position on him, might as well use it. Pushing gives that advantage up.

I dont think this situation is so much about you putting him on hand, as it is about playing it out. In other words, you're really confident it's a flip, but in reality people often will have a worse ace or king here. So your push is right just based on knowing that you are *at worst* a coinflip, not *definatly* a coinflip.

Incidently, I hate his call. I hate him min raising, he's playing that stupid hand like it's a monster. The reality is that he's UTG+1 with 12 blinds. He should have open pushed if he was going to play it.

push in this situation every time.
the reasons being:
1.your short stack,you may never get a better hand dealt than this.
2.you have AK ,the worse position you can be in is that he has AA, even against KK you have outs.if he has any of them hands then so be it.it was not meant to be.any other hand your almost 50/50.

3.if you push all in you will get to see all the 5 cards and you will also get to isolate the raiser and getting heads up with him if he calls which is in favor of a hand like AK .the reason is that in heads up situations top pair is usually enough to win the hand so getting to see the 5 cards is very important.

4.you have some fold equity so he may fold in which case you win the hand right there which is not a bad pot.

never ever fold AK in this situation,its a very powerful hand in this situation.
the only reason why you would think abt folding AK here is if you had a very very larg stack and the villian also had a very larg stack that he could bust you with.in this case you could argue that you have enough chips to buy you enough time to look for a better spot.
but here you dont have that many chips at all.
also the worse way you can play this which is even worse than folding is to just call.
if you just call,miss the flop,then you have no idea wheather he has AQ or KK if he pushes.you will have to fold or take a chance to see the other two cards.either way you ahve made a mistake and the villian has gained from your mistake.
hope this makes sense.

[PFrese]

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There's absolutely no way that you can have enough info on your opponent 2 hrs into an MTT to have this sort of read.

The fact that you were right this time has nothing to do that you made a flawed assumption.


[/ QUOTE ]I have no idea why you write this, but it's bad.

If OP considers it unlikely the OR has AA thru QQ, then that's his read, and since he has been observant and played the OR for a while it should not be challenged.

What you in effect are saying is that we can't make and trust reads online. This is plain and simply wrong.


Don't let others discourage you from trusting your reads.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

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Johan - dont confuse "reads" with Probobilities. I agree that there is no way that you can say, oh he raise 3x the BB there, his range is jj-77 or ak - whatever, but he could not have AA, KK, or QQ. The is simply silly. Of course he could have AA - QQ and of course he could bet 3x the BB with them. Heck, that is what good players do - they bet their monsters, just like they bet their average hands.

What our hero is doing here is saying that I do not THINK he has AA-QQ since the odds of him having one of those is 1 in 230ish and 1 in 80 or so that he has anyone of those hands. And, since I have AK, the odds are furhter reduced. That is completely logical and accurate decuctive reasoning, but it is NOT a read.

[winky51]

Let me correct my statement. My reraise would be 2.5 to 3x his raise. 2000 is prob too much. 1800 seems right.

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Is Stop n Go a joke? You will push 4200 into a 1200 pot? You are not even foirst to act after the flop??? You do have FE before the flop??? Please learn or take the time to understand the case before saying anything.

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Yes, it was a joke. You did, however, succeed in making yourself look like an arse and a looney. Getting upset like that on a forum is kind of sad.

However, I stand by:

Pushing > Calling > Folding

[bilbo-san]

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Your tournament situation dictates that you look for a "coin flip" - you're below average stack and M is 10ish. But if I'm going to flip I either want the heavy end of the coin, some fold equity, or some significant dead money - none of that applies. You're a dog to his range, the blinds don't give you pot odds when called, and he raised UTG+1 for 20% of his stack - he's not going any where. I think you call here and play postflop - your chip EV on a call-pre/fold-post is about the same as your push and you may not have to fold.

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How is there not enough money in the pot to be significant dead money? There's 20% of Hero's stack in the middle. If that is not "significant" dead money, then you are essentially saying is that we should wait for a time when there is so much money in the pot that we would have zero fold equity because pushing would give anyone the odds to call with just about any reasonable hand.

If the OP folds even 10% of the time, then we have a huge overlay on a coinflip with T1000 already in the middle. I think OP folds more like 20% of the time, and pushing is just about mandatory.

Also, you say that the OP is not going anywhere. That's your logic for letting him see a flop and blowing you off your hand 66% of the time with a bet, even though you have 50% pot equity right now? If he isn't going anywhere, why do you want to see a flop with him with your 2 overcards for T600? So you can fold a flop and have even less fold-equity later? Although I guess it doesn't matter in your world, where fold equity is always zero anyway because villains never fold.

And what does "The blinds don't give you pot odds when called" mean? Are you saying that their T450 is irrelevant to the potodds calculation because they are too small? Or are you saying that if one of them calls it's bad for you? Neither statement makes sense.