Some Offsuit hand Winrates

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K9o 1126 0.11BB/hand

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Strong.

Victor,

I could ask people to break down their winrates by position, i.e.

Button #times, winrate
Cutoff #times, winrate
SB #times, winrate
BB #times, winrate

We would need about 4 times the number of people responding to THAT request to get a statistically sufficient sample (actually many more than that since there will be fewer samples in the earlier positions).

Even more, we can ask people to submit their VPIPs in each position along with their positional winrates. But then, we run into some problems: what does it mean if one guy plays K9o a lot more in the big blind than another guy but his winrate is lower? Does it mean he should tighten up? Or could he just be running bad? To answer these questions we would need twice as many people as before, one group with higher vpips and one group with lower vpips. So, to even get close to a statistically sufficient sample size, we need to ask for an all-inclusive stat (like overall winrate) that people will have a lot of samples for.

The other major reason to stick to simple overall winrate is that if you ask for something complicated, you will get even FEWER people responding to your post. If you don't believe me look here:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=1&vc=1

-v

[Spicymoose]

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blinds included:

K9o 1126 0.11BB/hand
Q9o 1100 0.02BB/hand
J9o 1114 (0.01BB/hand)
T9o 1095 (0.06BB/hand)

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Now this is something I find useful. Most people are losing with K9o, but you are winning significantly. Obviously some of it is variance, since the samples are tiny, but is that all of it? Are other people overvaluing their K9o, and playing more than they should? Are you finding more profitble situations to play it? Are you just a luckbox?

[chris_a]

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but is that all of it? Are other people overvaluing their K9o, and playing more than they should? Are you finding more profitble situations to play it? Are you just a luckbox?

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The only question that it's safe to make any conclusions on is the last one.

Assuming that his standard deviation with K9o is about 2.3 BB/hand, which is reasonable, after 1126 hands his standard error for the average is about 0.07 BB... Which makes the 95% confidence interval about 0.14 BB.

K9o 437 .05
Q9o 432 (.01)
J9o 410 (.04)
109o 470 (.04)

[Victor]

all im saying is vpip skews winrate a ton.

just bc i have k9 20k times, if my vpip is 10 then well....you the math aman....what do you think

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all im saying is vpip skews winrate a ton.


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I agree completely.

However there's not much I can do that's useful with vpip unless I have many people in each 'vpip range.' Once we're done here we'll have an average winrate for these hands, independent of vpip. Then you can ask questions like:

"Can I do better than this average by increasing (or decreasing) my vpip with this hand?"

"Can I do better than this average by just playing better with this hand while maintaining my current vpip?"

Answering those questions will be tough because by yourself you won't have a large sample size. But at least you'll have an accurate metric to compare yourself against: the average winrate of a large number of winning players.

[baronzeus]

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but is that all of it? Are other people overvaluing their K9o, and playing more than they should? Are you finding more profitble situations to play it? Are you just a luckbox?

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The only question that it's safe to make any conclusions on is the last one.

Assuming that his standard deviation with K9o is about 2.3 BB/hand, which is reasonable, after 1126 hands his standard error for the average is about 0.07 BB... Which makes the 95% confidence interval about 0.14 BB.

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so what you're saying is, that it's equally likely that i am a .18BB/hand winner with the hand as it is that I am a .04BB/hand winner?

[kahntrutahn]

K9o: 1,311 times, 0.05
Q9o: 1,307 times, (0.05)
J9o: 1,351 times, (0.10)
T9o: 1,290 times, (0.01)

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so what you're saying is, that it's equally likely that i am a .18BB/hand winner with the hand as it is that I am a .04BB/hand winner?

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What you say is true, but what he's saying is that there's a 95% chance that your true winrate with K9o is between -0.03bb/hand and +0.25bb/hand.