Arbs

NajdorfDefense · #1 12-27-2005, 11:48 AM

You sell a Eagles to win SB at 1-1 odds.
You buy an Eagles to win SB at 3-1 odds.
You put $100 of action on each.
Max loss = zero, Max win = $200. EV % chance PHL wins times $200. So if 10% your EV is $20.

simple.

Naj

NoSoup4U · #2 12-27-2005, 01:28 PM

In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend:

$3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win $3,420
$3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win $3,057

If the Cardinals won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year.

NajdorfDefense · #3 12-28-2005, 12:07 PM

Yeah, sorry bout that, my example was a little rushed as I tried to make it more simple. Clearly you would want to book the $100 pure profit regardless.

Damn cutting back on caffeine is killin me.

Naj

NoSoup4U · #4 12-28-2005, 04:16 PM

No worries. There are few topics that I am smart enough to contribute on here, but how to arb money risk-free and clear bonuses appeals to my limit ring game grinder's mind. When I first got talked into trying it, I really thought it seemed too good to be true or that it would take hours and hours to find a good play. It turns out to be a lot easier than I thought it would be.

#5 12-28-2005, 07:24 PM

How many books to you guys have accounts with in order to effectively scalp? I'm very intrigued by this, and having just gotten my bonus, I have some money to throw into a few more accounts at various books to make it happen.

NoSoup4U · #6 12-28-2005, 10:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How many books to you guys have accounts with in order to effectively scalp?

[/ QUOTE ]

I find that Pinnacle (and to a lesser extent Matchbook) are the driving force behind most arbs I find. Most any slow moving or reduced vig book often works for the other side. I haven't been at it long, so the best books may change with the season.

It seems to work best with sports where a move in the basic line is a big deal, so they have to manipulate the odds to balance the action. So hockey and NFL often has arbs, where NBA over/unders seem to rarely have them. For this reason, I suspect baseball is a really good game for scalpers.

I don't understand the entire business model of the various sportsbooks, but Pinnacle clearly goes out of their way to create arbs. They will post a +114 sometimes when they could easily move the line. I assume that they understand what we are doing and are willing to bet against the other books in certain situations.

DougOzzzz · #7 12-28-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In Najdorf's example, most of us would put $200 on the 1-1 bet and $100 on the 3-1 bet. You win $100 either way then and you no longer care who wins.

In the real world, a more typical example would be this bet I placed last weekend:

$3,000 on the Cardinals -2.5 +114 to win $3,420
$3,363 on the Eagles +2.5 -110 to win $3,057

If the Cardinals won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Eagles. If the Eagles won, I won $57 more than I lost on the Cardinals. Either way, I win and am one step closer to clearing my bonus and getting paid almost 1% on my money for the trouble. If you can find 1% per week, you earn 52% on the year. If you earn 1% per day, you earn 365% on the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

NoSoup4U · #8 12-28-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

DougOzzzz · #9 12-28-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much.

NoSoup4U · #10 12-28-2005, 10:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1% a day would actually result in a profit of 3678%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pesky compound interest. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you understand that this wasn't a typo. It might look like 365%, but it actually more than 10x that much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh no. I understood my mistake immediately. I'm new at this and am stunned at the money that is available with relatively low risk.

Of course, I could never leverage my whole bankroll into 1% arbs every day because of the need to move money around, but it made me realize that my return is going be much larger than I first thought.

So far I'm primarily focused on clearing bonuses, but I think this could be worthwhile when I'm done just on arbs alone. It seems to me that either Pinny or Matchbook have at least one arb almost every time I check.