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#11
10-31-2005, 12:55 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1. A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets and when he has one pair hands that plan to check behind. 2. Betting the river costs you a bet when he is on a bluff and doesn't bluff raise and when he has a one pair hand that planned to bet the river and call a check raise. I think the answer is 2 and it isn't that close. [/ QUOTE ] I think your reasoning is only correct if he never river raises 2 pair, and I don't think that's a fair assumption. Josh [/ QUOTE ] "A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets" Is this not clear? 
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#12
10-31-2005, 01:20 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
[ QUOTE ]
honestly, whenever i go for a checkraise, they check behind every time. [/ QUOTE ] I find this easy to believe. It happens to me a lot too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#13
10-31-2005, 01:40 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
I like a bet here. Your going to get raised by smaller sets and two pair combos a lot anyway. Betting will get more money in because of this, and you also dodge a bullet the times he made a free showdown raise.
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#14
10-31-2005, 01:42 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 1. A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets and when he has one pair hands that plan to check behind. 2. Betting the river costs you a bet when he is on a bluff and doesn't bluff raise and when he has a one pair hand that planned to bet the river and call a check raise. I think the answer is 2 and it isn't that close. [/ QUOTE ] I think your reasoning is only correct if he never river raises 2 pair, and I don't think that's a fair assumption. Josh [/ QUOTE ] "A river check raise will often cost you a bet when he has two pair and you would have got 3 bets" Is this not clear? [/ QUOTE ] Perfectly. Sorry I didn't see it the first time. My bad. Josh
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#15
10-31-2005, 02:15 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
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All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls. Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call. Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too. Bet, raise, call. [/ QUOTE ] Is it out of respect for Josh that every response is about the river? I think this hand was overplayed and he should have folded to the turn raise. Having said that, I'd bet the river.
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#16
10-31-2005, 02:23 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls. Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call. Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too. Bet, raise, call. [/ QUOTE ] Is it out of respect for Josh that every response is about the river? I think this hand was overplayed and he should have folded to the turn raise. Having said that, I'd bet the river. [/ QUOTE ] I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty.... But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn. There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind? A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop. Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop. A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1. Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think). But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc). I just don't think I can fold the turn. Josh
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#18
10-31-2005, 03:02 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
[ QUOTE ]
whenever i try to read hands with regards to what my opponent should do, i am unequivocally wrong. [/ QUOTE ] The key to reading hands, and poker in general, is realizing it's not black and white. Everything is probabilities. Not just "the probability of flopping a set" probabilities, but "what is the chance he plays this hand that way" probabilities. You don't want to get locked into "He must have XX" type of thinking. It's better to have a "He **could** have XX" thinking. In my previous post, I talk about what he'd LIKELY do with any holdings, and I stand by those. I say that he likely wouldn't raise the flop and turn with an ace, for example. If I get to showdown and realize he did precisely that, it doesn't mean that my assessment was incorrect. However, the next time that situation comes up, I should probably tweak my percentages (but not necessarily overhaul them altogether) I hope that makes sense... Josh
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#19
10-31-2005, 03:34 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
The river is a bet for the reasons already given by most but what I am wondering about is your flop and turn play. Where are you going with all that action?
Some plausible reasons to 3 bet the flop: 1. You want him to fold a hand like KJ to a turn bet- but it's unlikely that he has such a hand 2. You want him to fold a hand like 99 - again, an unlikely holding for him because of his preflop smoothcall 3. You want to make him pay to draw to his 5 to 12 outer Well, okay, maybe reason No. 3 is reason enough so let's say that your flop 3 bet is okay. Now, you get raised on the turn on an Ace high board after you 3 bet the flop and raised preflop. The guy ain't bluffing. I would generally fold at that point - I would only call if I felt that there was something currently wrong with my image that my opponent might be exploiting. BTW, I have been away for a month holidaying in Australia. Empire poker...wtf?
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#20
10-31-2005, 03:37 AM
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Re: Blind war...river checkraise?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls. Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call. Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too. Bet, raise, call. [/ QUOTE ] Is it out of respect for Josh that every response is about the river? I think this hand was overplayed and he should have folded to the turn raise. Having said that, I'd bet the river. [/ QUOTE ] I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty.... But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn. There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind? A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop. Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop. A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1. Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think). But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc). I just don't think I can fold the turn. Josh [/ QUOTE ] I think this is very good analysis. Too often in a hand like this I will just be like "crap, if hes raising again I must be beat" so I fold.
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