5/10 top and bottom with the nut flush draw...

AZK · #1 10-09-2005, 04:44 PM

5/10, image - crazy as usual. I open (in MP) for 35 with A3s, 3 callers.

Flop AQT twotone, giving me the nut flush draw.

I bet 100, minraise, fold, fold, I call.

Turn 3o.

Action?

I checked, he bet 300. Now what? He has 500 left.

Minraise is two pair, set, nuts most of the time, though I recently stacked villain so it could just be him playing back at me.

AZK · #2 10-09-2005, 04:59 PM

I suppose this is basic. Call the turn. Check/fold the river unimproved.

mikech · #3 10-09-2005, 05:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
5/10, image - crazy as usual. I open (in MP) for 35 with A3s, 3 callers.

Flop AQT twotone, giving me the nut flush draw.

I bet 100, minraise, fold, fold, I call.

Turn 3o.

Action?

I checked, he bet 300. Now what? He has 500 left.

Minraise is two pair, set, nuts most of the time, though I recently stacked villain so it could just be him playing back at me.

[/ QUOTE ]
um, call, river a spade, stack him again?

edit: "A3s" probly doesn't mean spades necessarily, so just river the flush. and yeah pretty basic.

threeonefour · #4 10-09-2005, 05:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose this is basic. Call the turn. Check/fold the river unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you do if you improve? just push the river i assume. i have a hard time believing this line (the turn part) is optimal if villian does have 2 pair or better. this is because an A or 3 is often not an out and when the A or 3 hits its likely (or at least possible) the villian will fold a lot of the time when behind and call when ahead. i suppose this is also true for a flush completing card that pairs the board.

ie river is an A when he has QT (he folds) vs river being an A when he has AT (he calls and wins).

your read that the villian is capable of bluffing or overplaying a lesser hand here changes things somewhat. what percentage of the time do you think he would bluff like this , 15% maybe?

thats probably hard to say. in general, after winning a big pot off a typical player how much does their bluffing frequency change? i would have no idea.

i know i am not an expert but is there any support for lines like call the flop min raise then leading the turn? or check raising the turn allin? or reraising the flop (i don't like that at all really)?

xorbie · #5 10-09-2005, 06:18 PM

I agree that the A might not be an out, but the 3 almost always will be.

threeonefour · #6 10-09-2005, 06:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the A might not be an out, but the 3 almost always will be.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you are saying him having two pair is much more likely then a set? which makes sense since its harder to flop a set than two pair.

EDIT: i am still not convinced this original line is best. seems like a bad spot to be in. well +EV but not maxEV.

some pokerstove results for what its worth (note the only 'bluff' hand is AKo and AKs which is probably not realistic)

also noteworthy is the fact that hands like AK or QT (the ones you beat) might fold to the turn allin whereas AA QQ etc aren't going anywhere.

2,288 games 0.047 secs 48,680 games/sec

Board: Ac Qh Th 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 45.3234 % [ 00.45 00.00 ] { Ah3h }
Hand 2: 54.6766 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { AA, QQ, TT, AKs-AQs, ATs, KJs, QTs, AKo-AQo, ATo, KJo, QTo }

creedofhubris · #7 10-09-2005, 07:01 PM

Smooth calling the flop minraise seems awkward, why don't you just push there? Puts the pressure where it belongs, and you've got some solid equity on this hand no matter what he's got. Also removes doubt about whether or not to call a river bomb when you spike your two pair.

His turn bet is large enough that a turn call on your part is marginal.

AZK · #8 10-09-2005, 09:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Smooth calling the flop minraise seems awkward, why don't you just push there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause I know he has a set/twopair/straight and I know he isn't folding. I don't think most people fire this strong on the turn with two pair or a set...he's gotta wonder what I'm calling with so I figured I was 2:1 against the straight. He's giving me 3:1 with the bet and surely pays off if i hit.

flawless_victory · #9 10-09-2005, 09:27 PM

i think you should likely check the flop... why bet the flop if youre not going to push when someone raises? given your spot, id call the turn and checkfold the river UI... if make a flush of a full, move in obviously...
if you make the flush, but the board pairs, you ay have a big problem as earlier posters have suggested.

AZK · #10 10-09-2005, 09:38 PM

follow up to my last post, I kind of see what you are saying about the turn call, it does suck putting in a sizeable chunk of money on the turn only to fold the river if I don't hit, but you can't really fold this hand can you?