Blind war...river checkraise? - Page 3

Josh W · #21 10-31-2005, 03:46 AM

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Party 30-60.

All fold to me in SB, I raise w/ 88, BB calls.

Flop A24, two spades. Bet, raise, threebet, call.

Turn is 6h, putting two hearts out there, too.

Bet, raise, call.

River 8d. Checkraise or bet out?

Thanks,

Josh

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I checked.

Pog0 · #22 10-31-2005, 03:52 AM

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I checked.

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Based on your analysis of your opponent's hand, your thinking is that he's on a busted draw and the only bet you're getting out of him on the river is from a bluff?

mike l. · #23 10-31-2005, 07:22 AM

wow i think check-calling after the guy raises the flop is okay. as for the river i think you should bet/reraise but that's only cause i think the guy has the A he's been representing, which apparently you didnt since you kept calling him down.

SA125 · #24 10-31-2005, 11:51 AM

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The key to reading hands, and poker in general, is realizing it's not black and white. Everything is probabilities. Not just "the probability of flopping a set" probabilities, but "what is the chance he plays this hand that way" probabilities.

You don't want to get locked into "He must have XX" type of thinking. It's better to have a "He **could** have XX" thinking.

In my previous post, I talk about what he'd LIKELY do with any holdings, and I stand by those. I say that he likely wouldn't raise the flop and turn with an ace, for example.

If I get to showdown and realize he did precisely that, it doesn't mean that my assessment was incorrect. However, the next time that situation comes up, I should probably tweak my percentages (but not necessarily overhaul them altogether)

I hope that makes sense...

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It does, which is why I'm glad you're posting more.

SA125 · #25 10-31-2005, 12:11 PM

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I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty....

But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn.

There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind?

A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop.

Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop.

A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1.

Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think).

But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc).

I just don't think I can fold the turn.

Josh

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Good reply and excellent analysis. I think you're behind on the turn more often than not. I don't know either if it's the 75% number you mentioned. I find it interesting you included that. Is that the number you like to believe you're behind enough when debating to fold? Or is it not relevant enough to pursue, because I find it interesting if it is.

eviljeff · #26 10-31-2005, 01:51 PM

he doesn't seem shy about raising your bets. seems like the only case where betting is not better is where he's been on a draw the whole way and won't bluff-raise.

eviljeff · #27 10-31-2005, 01:53 PM

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honestly, whenever i go for a checkraise, they check behind every time.

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heh, baronzeus is a c/r virgin

Josh W · #28 10-31-2005, 04:48 PM

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I hope it's not "out of respect for me", and I doubt it....I deserve brutal honesty....

But I think it's bad to fold the turn...okay, that's a lie. I think it's horrible to fold the turn.

There are quite simply way too many times I'm ahead. Seriously, what could I be behind?

A small ace almost never raises the flop AND turn. A big ace threebets preflop.

Flop raise is likely less than two pair, especially with the ace out there (if they flop two pair, and I have a hand like QJ, they really don't want me to fold, and i would). So, for some reason or another, two pair, big ace, and small ace are all unlikely on the flop.

A6 is definitely a possibility, but I still think they play it this way less than 50% of the time (the flop raise in particular). A hand like 64 is certainly possible, but if that's what they have, I have 8 outs to catch up, and I"m gettin 8:1.

Now, certainly, I CAN be behind. But the possibility just isn't that high (not over 75%, I don't think).

But there are tons of draws out there (Pair + Flush draw, Pair + Straight draw, naked flush draw, etc).

I just don't think I can fold the turn.

Josh

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Good reply and excellent analysis. I think you're behind on the turn more often than not. I don't know either if it's the 75% number you mentioned. I find it interesting you included that. Is that the number you like to believe you're behind enough when debating to fold? Or is it not relevant enough to pursue, because I find it interesting if it is.

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The 75% number was just something I threw out there as a rough estimate. If I call the turn raise, I almost have to call any river. When he raises the turn, there are 8 BB in the pot, and I'll lose 2 more bets (one more on turn, one on river). So, if he never bluffs the river (worst case scenario), I'm risking 2 to win 8. I guess I shoulda said 80% then. If I'm ahead more than 20% of the time, I should call down, even if he never bluffs the river.

If he'll bluff the river, I'm risking 2 to win 9, so I only need to be ahead 18.2% of the time.

The 75% was a quick estimate, and was off a little.

Josh

Josh W · #29 10-31-2005, 04:51 PM

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I checked.

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Based on your analysis of your opponent's hand, your thinking is that he's on a busted draw and the only bet you're getting out of him on the river is from a bluff?

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I think his most likely holdings are: A6, 46, or some sort of draw (maybe draw/pair combo).

If he has A6 or 46, he'll bet. If he has a busted draw, he may or may not bet, but there's certainly no value in me betting.

It's entirely possible I underestimated his chance of having A5 or A3 and he checks behind (IMO, those are really the only hands he can possibly play this way that checks the river).

I think it's close, but since I wake up every morning hoping I find a way to checkraise the river, I think checking is correct.

Josh

Josh W · #30 10-31-2005, 04:53 PM

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wow i think check-calling after the guy raises the flop is okay. as for the river i think you should bet/reraise but that's only cause i think the guy has the A he's been representing, which apparently you didnt since you kept calling him down.

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I didn't "keep calling him down", I only called once the entire hand. I ain't no pansy.

In reality, the guy had T4o, and he checked behind on the river.

I think that there is probably about a 50% chance he calls a river bet, and maybe a 10% chance that he bets the river. All this means is that if I was good enough to put him on this hand, I shoulda bet the river.

Josh