no B.S.-- how much of poker is luck?

[Justin A]

Study statistics and learn about standard deviation. It can be described as a measure of luck and should answer some of your questions.

37.2678%

Come on... that's like asking... am I really in love?

[MCS]

Your question means nothing.

30% luck. That's what I say. Whatever that means.

"On any given hand of poker it's nearly 100% luck."

That's not true. You're dealt cards and it's how you play them that is the skill. The only luck is that you don't know for sure what the next cards to be turned over will be and even then you can have an idea - even a good idea - of what might help your opponent. Luck is when he catches that card that helps him when he had the worst of it. Even then if you are a good player you can bluff and who knows, it might work. So luck is not 100%.

I disagree entirely with Rottersod. Over one session, it could be "very close" (but not equal) to 100%.

Well that's my opinion, based on my understanding. I know many people will claim diffrently, but I never heard a single argument that would convince me that it is not so.

[Buccaneer]

Variance, it is variance not luck. Variance that benifits us if luck or good luck. Variance that hurts us is called bad luck, sucking out, etc.

Reduce your variance and you will eliminate the need to be lucky to win.

[David Sklansky]

You have an hourly rate and a standard deviation to your hourly rate. Typically the standard deviation is about 15 times your average hourly win. As the hours churn out, your expected win is multiplied by the number of hours you play. But your standard deviation is multiplied by the square root of the number of hours. Since you will rarely be doing worse than two standard deviations below expectation, 900 hours is about the point where you can almost be sure (in the scenario I just gave you) that you will be ahead. But in a 9 hour session you are well over 40% to be losing. (Your results will be 9 hours of expected win plus or minus 90.)

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

Famous quote:

"A hand of poker is like a game of chess for $1 followed by a coin flip for $10. At the end of the night, whether you are ahead or behind depends almost entirely on the coin flips. At the end of the year, it's almost entirely the chess game."


[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks, but I believe a more correct version of that is mine, and that it is not a famous quote yet. If you've seen it quoted elsewhere, please let me know.

A hand of poker would be more like a game of chess for $1 followed by a coin toss for $100, not $10.

[silvershade]

Whether you win or lose a hand is largely luck. If you dont have a hand you wont win often.

How much you win or lose with a hand is more skill dependent, but there's still an element of luck in this as well, ie you cant cap with the nuts if no one will play back at you etc.

Hopefully over the long term the luck evens out for you and if you played well you end up winning.

98%