5/10: Nut Straight with a flopped flush

[paperboyNC]

Villain is TAGGish (11% VPIP). Raise this river? It seems like an odd line for him for a flopped flush, yet he donks the river and I dont want to get 3bet.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG+2 folds.

River: (9.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

Raise &amp; pay him off if he 3-bets. He could also have flopped a set or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with a paired kicker., or KQ with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[lightw1thoutheat]

raise and call a three bet, a flush would have probably hit you again on the turn.

[billuhbong]

i say raise...

considering he was in the small blind he could of flopped a small flush. if he had he would of re-raised u on the turn to make it more money for the guy in between to catch his flush. instead he just called meaning he either flopped the nut flush or he hit a set and he bets into the river with his set because no other spade came and thinks hes good. i say raise river even tho its a tricky situation but u may gain another bb/hr by doing this and he'll only 3 bet if he hit the nut flush. -go for it

[lighterjobs]

Against those stats it's kind of a tough one.

I don't think a tag would bet call the turn and then bet out on the river with nothing, even the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kx. a lot of players with those stats wouldn't complete with two low spades.

I would probabably raise and call a three bet.

[Cumulonimbus]

Fold preflop and raise the river.

[W. Deranged]

I'm raising and calling a three-bet pretty comfortably here. A flopped flush gets friskier on the turn the vast majority of the time. Villain more likely:

1. Has a weaker hand and was waiting for a non-flush river to bet again.

2. Villain has nothing but a big [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and is taking a final, last-ditch, mis-guided bluff at this pot.

So raise. Don't be surprised to see villain fold.

One thing I've noticed several times recently is that when villain wakes up with a confusing donk-bet on the river after you've had/taken the lead in the betting, it's very often a missed big draw.

I fold this one preflop usually.
But, I call down river.
I struggle with the value of raising here, although it seems most everyone thinks it's the right play. What hand that you can beat will possibly call a raise on the river, especially after you pretty much represented a flush on turn? It seems like you are just throwing an extra $10 out there that only can be lost. And, worstcase, if he does reraise you, then what? You gonna throw another $10 out there to see his nutflush?
I think your call is good well over 50%. I think if you raise and you are called then you are good well under 20%. So why raise? The only logic I may be missing is if your raise causes him to fold a small flush??? I don't see it.