5/10: Folding QQ headsup against a LAG

[paperboyNC]

Button is 37/20/2.88 after 73 hands of 6max. So he's pretty aggressive. The problem is that this flop sucks since I don't have a spade. Easy fold?


Absolute Poker 5/10 Hold 'Em <font color="blue">(6 max, 6 Handed)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">2 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="red">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="gray">2 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero caps</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (9.6 SB): 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="red">Hero bets</font>, <font color="red">Button raises</font>, Hero?

[icepick]

I think so.

[shant]

Even though he's a LAG there are so many cards you have to dodge even if you have the best hand that it's not worth putting in 2.5BB more to find out. Fold and find a better spot.

[einbert]

I don't know, there is a lot of money in that pot from the preflop betting and your flop bet. I kind of like calling down unless another club comes. It's probably close.

[hobbsmann]

I at the very least peel and see the turn.

[paperboyNC]

My thoughts:

Let's say his 3 betting range is:

66+
QJ, KJ, KQ
ATs+, AJo+

I am ahead of 66-JJ, QJ, KJ and KQ (if they arent suited spades). I am way behind any ace and KK

50% of the time I'm already beat and have 5% chance to win (1 out).

50% of the time he has a spade, and I will lose 40% of the time.

Net: I win 2.5% + 30% = 32.5% total (2 to 1). I'm getting 17.6 to 5 on a call down (3.5 to 1).

Do I fold if a spade hits the river?

[einbert]

I didn't realize his stats were for six max. That leans it more towards a fold, but I still like at least getting to the river if there's no club, and most likely I'm seeing a showdown if no club falls.