5/10 QQ?

paperboyNC · #1 11-16-2005, 05:53 PM

The BB is 18/6.6/2 after 287 hands. So far he has never raised pre-flop from the BB. So far he's shown down 5 hands he raises pre-flop: TT, 88, KK, AKo, ATo. I put him on a monster here and wanted a cheap showdown. But the 2 other players make me think about protecting my hand.

Rock Garden Poker (Empire) 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero ?

Do I:

- Raise to protect my hand?
- Call hoping to hit a Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?
- Fold, he obviously has 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

#2 11-16-2005, 05:56 PM

Raise and beat his JJ.

ErrantNight · #3 11-16-2005, 05:57 PM

for god sakes cap preflop. it's not close.

raise the flop.

raise the turn.

don't bring this weak/tight shite in here. he's a tag that's not terribly aggressive. fine. whatever. you've got to be putting more bets in here. all over the place.

W. Deranged · #4 11-16-2005, 05:58 PM

1. Your read is great. My compliments.

2. I see no reason to raise this flop and I'm glad you didn't. Waiting for a non-club, non-overcard turn is better. Waiting also allows you to get out cheaply if, say, UTG comes to life on the turn with raise.

3. Brett can tell you what line I'll advocate on the turn: Raise and take a free showdown. You're ahead here enough to see a showdown, and since the guy in between (and even the pfr) might be betting draws, overcards, etc..., it's much better to make them pay now the times you're ahead. With so few outs you can safely fold to a three-bet. The presence of the button behind you (who likely has some outs to beat your hand) totally seals the deal for a raise here.

paperboyNC · #5 11-16-2005, 06:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
don't bring this weak/tight shite in here. he's a tag that's not terribly aggressive. fine. whatever. you've got to be putting more bets in here. all over the place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it possible to put an opponent on a read of JJ-AA? I'm trying to learn to adjust my play depending on my opponents. I value bet mid-pair a lot against calling stations, semi-bluff a lot against weak-tighties, and respect the raises of players that don't raise a lot.

ErrantNight · #6 11-16-2005, 06:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. Your read is great. My compliments.

[/ QUOTE ]

really?

f'reals?

fwiw i think you're correct about the flop. waiting for a safe turn is fine.

W. Deranged · #7 11-16-2005, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1. Your read is great. My compliments.

[/ QUOTE ]

really?

f'reals?

fwiw i think you're correct about the flop. waiting for a safe turn is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just think the fact that he can name all the hands this dude has shown down when raising pre-flop is pretty good. Noting he doesn't raise out of the BB is good to. That + stats adds up to a pretty solid read in my opinion, though I would like to have a better sense of his post-flop play.

ErrantNight · #8 11-16-2005, 06:13 PM

i suspect that he knew which hands he showed down AFTER the hand was played (i.e. w/ additional research)

but even with that range i think you're getting 3-bet by AKs and JJ which is enough to make a cap +ev with the rest of the crowd being brought along

W. Deranged · #9 11-16-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i suspect that he knew which hands he showed down AFTER the hand was played (i.e. w/ additional research)

but even with that range i think you're getting 3-bet by AKs and JJ which is enough to make a cap +ev with the rest of the crowd being brought along

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah, didn't think about pre-flop at all. We should cap here. I cap QQ and AK pretty much anytime there's riff-raff along for the ride.

#10 11-16-2005, 06:24 PM

I cap the flop. I think your equity is good with UTG and Button along for the ride. It also gives you some post flop control and info.

I like a raise on the Flop. Protect against A or K overcard holdings. You also gain some info.

Honestly I am not sure about the turn, but some thoughts I have are:

1. You won't be able to protect against a flush draw on the turn, and there are not many gut shots on this board.

2. BB will not often lead the turn again with 3 callers if he is not holding a pocket pair, so I think AK is less likely. He may have an AKs flush draw.

3. You may not be able to fold if BB 3-bets.

4. You still need to protect against A and K holdings.

5. A turn raise may buy you a cheap showdown.

I would probably raise to buy some safe river cards, charge the flush draws, and maybe see a cheap showdown. I might call a 3-bet. I might check the river through if given the chance.