5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet?

[paperboyNC]

UTG is 19/11/3.50 after 107 hands. His river aggression is only 1.50 though.

Absolute 5/10 Texas Hold 'em <font color="blue">(9 max, 8 handed)</font>

Pre-flop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG raises</font>, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="gray">6 folds</font>.

Flop: (7.6 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.8 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (6.8 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises</font>, Hero?

If I 3bet, he will fold a pure bluff, call with a lot of worse hands and cap with anything that beats me, plus some kings with bad kickers. Is 3betting +EV here? It seems I'll see 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] a lot here.

The only plausible hands he has that beat us are 88 or 99, right? If he's not an idiot, open-raise UTG would eliminate pocket threes, K8, and K9. He could plausibly have another big pair or KQ/AQ if he's aggro.

The way he played the hand WA/WB, he had to put you on at least one king, right? If villain put us on trips from the flop, he was calling us down for two outs all the way through. That's pretty horrible poker.

He might have put us on a big pair with him holding AK or KQ, and discounting us as having the case king, he decided to slowplay to the river. That's what the hand feels like to me.

I think we're more likely chopping when he turns over the case king with *his* AK than we are seeing 99 FWIW. I would actually suspect he'd show us AK or KQ...

Post what he had after you get more replies...

[Cumulonimbus]

Man. I'd just call and save myself the mathematical headache. I'd be confident he has 99 or 88, with an occasional KQ.

[Terrabon98]

What about K10s, KJs, KQs, KQo, pure bluff, weird value bet from a lower pocket pair...there are a TON more combinations of these hands than 88 or 99. I would 3-bet this unless the person was a super tight rock. If you lost to 88 or 99, then that happens...there are still more hands from an unknown that you beat than beat you.

[BigBrother]

[ QUOTE ]
What about K10s, KJs, KQs, KQo, pure bluff, weird value bet from a lower pocket pair...there are a TON more combinations of these hands than 88 or 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

But there are not a TON more of those combinations that will C/R the river AND call a 3-bet.

From my limited experience in the 5/10 you are getting c/r'd or donked by any K sooner almost always.

Like a lot of these situations, I think the 3-bet is right on the edge, and highly read dependent.

[paperboyNC]

[ QUOTE ]
From my limited experience in the 5/10 you are getting c/r'd or donked by any K sooner almost always.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my thought as well. The K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would have check-raised the turn at least. This guy suddenly wakes up on the river...

If the villain has a Kx, he certainly played it in a weird way, most people wouldve shown aggression much sooner with this type of a hand. This looks like to me that he called down with 99s hoping his 2 pair was best and then he hit his magic card on the river. Going by sheer mathematics, you should just call and heres my reasoning. If you assume the villain will raise AK,KQ,KJs,and 99 utg then you are only a 5-3 favorite(this also assumes the villain is not an idiot and would not play AQ,AA,QQ,JJ,TT this way) being a 5-3 favorite is not enough to raise this river since you are laying 2-1 on your raise becuz you must call a 3 bet. Going by logic, you should also just call since most people do not play trip kings this way, pocket 99's is much more logical than trip kings given this action. So final answer is call the river checkraise.

[Cumulonimbus]

[ QUOTE ]
What about K10s, KJs, KQs, KQo, pure bluff, weird value bet from a lower pocket pair...there are a TON more combinations of these hands than 88 or 99. I would 3-bet this unless the person was a super tight rock. If you lost to 88 or 99, then that happens...there are still more hands from an unknown that you beat than beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are four combos of KT. I don't think this TAG's raising UTG 8-handed with KT. Four of KJ, Four of KQ. You don't count KQ and KQs as separate entities when adding hands. 8 combos. Six combos of 88, six of 99. 12 Combos. And this isn't a bluff 99% of the time. TAG's usually know better than to checkraise-bluff a river against another TAG.

8 is less than 12, but not significantly. Given the logic that he probably would have let us know a little earlier if he did indeed have a king, I think we have to worry much more about 99 and 88. Therefore, call.

EDIT: My money is on 99.

[toss]

If villain has a K we would have probably heard from him earlier given his aggr. numbers. We also can't really fold if villain caps the river. I'm not capable of folding it. Our ony fear is that villain decided to get tricky.

[Klepton]

don't 3-bet this. because you can't fold to a 4-bet, and you'll hate yourself.

btw it does really look like 99 or a misplayed 88.