Questions about drawing odds...

[R_Ellender]

SCENARIO A

Two players... the Hero holds A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and the Villain is holding 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. The flop is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

As of now, the Villain is obviously in the lead, and he bets $20 into an $40 pot, giving the Hero 3:1 odds on his money. The odds of improving to a flush on the turn are about 18%, so the Hero should be able to make money in the long run with this call provided he can do some value betting on the turn and river(if he makes his hand).

However, if the Hero makes his flush with say, a J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the turn, the Villain still has a 22% chance of making a full house or quads on the river.

My question is, should this factor into the Hero's decision on the flop? In other words, are his odds a little worse than they seem since his opponent has a redraw to a stronger hand?

SCENARIO B

It's a $1/$2 NLHE cash game, and the Villain raises to $10 from middle position with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img](pot=$13). All players fold to the Hero on the button, who holds 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Both of the blinds are holding their hole cards in preparation to fold, so the Hero knows the pot will be contested heads-up if he decides to call.

The Hero knows that his opponent will bet the flop regardless of what falls when contesting the pot with only one or two players, and his bet is usually twice the size of his raise. Hero is also a psychic that has narrowed his opponents holdings to AK-A8 or KQ-K9. The chances of the Hero flopping a pair of better without his opponent improving are about 25%, or 3:1 against. Since he knows his opponent will bet $20 on the pot, he believes he is getting $33:$10(3.3:1) on his call. Will he make money with the 3.3:1 odds on his 3:1 shot? I'm asking this because his opponent will obviously have a draw to a higher pair if the Hero only flops a pair of fives or sixes. In other words, he only becomes a favorite, he doesn't have the hand won yet. Does he make money in the long run?

I'm thinking that the ability to bet and raise for value after becoming a favorite give the Hero +EV in the long run, but I'd like to hear someone else's input on these two scenarios.

Scenario B:

I don't think the calculation of the pot odds is correct.

You get 1.3:1 before, 2.15:1 after, you can't just add them.

You have to take the situation on the flop individually.
You know you'll always get 2.15:1 on a 3:1 situation, not worth it really.

But this is just how I think about it.

On a separate note, if I where a pshychic like our Hero, I would try to gain as much +EV as possible, by raising him on the flop when everything is 7 or lower, but without a 5 or a 6 in order to steal it. This will happen about 3,2% of the time in this particular situation.

That makes the total situation getting about 28,2% or 2.55:1, still not worth it, but better nonetheless.

A final note: I didn't take the implied odds into account, because I trust the initial raiser not to lose anymore money the moment he is beat or thinks he is beat. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[KJL]

In scenario A, you should include redraws in you calculations. However,if you are going to do this you need to know what hand your opponent has.

In Scenrio B, it sounds like you are saying the villian will always bet 20 on the flop, no matter what. Then you are getting 3.3-1 odds for your preflop call. And 65 vs. the range of hands you listed is a 2-1 underdog, so I would make the call based on that.

[octop]

Another point for scenario a is the person holding AK also thinks that the Aces and Kings are outs