Deep-stacked semi-bluff vs. overpair, 2/5NL

[dtbog]

A little background:

Setting is $2/$5 NL at Turning Stone, $200 max buy. I have been focusing almost all of my observation efforts on the villain in this hand for about six hours now, as his nearly-impenetrable stack of $1500 makes up about 40% of all of the chips in play on the table.

Villain seems like a mostly solid player, who hasn't gone too far out of line. Every large preflop raise from EP has been a high pair, and most people are paying him off.

Most importantly: whenever anyone has asked villain about his stack, he's responded in a self-deprecating manner about how he lost $1200 earlier at 20/40, and is only now back to even. For this reason, he is seeming relatively risk-averse.

Without further ado:

Villain ($1500) raises to $26 UTG. 3 calls. Hero ($850) calls from BB with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

(if there's an implied odds hand, it's this one.)

Flop ($130): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets $50. Villain raises to $100. MP goes all-in for $25. 2 folds. Hero calls.

(At this point, he's confirmed my suspicion that he has AA/KK but lacks the willingness to make the appropriate raise here. I'm now getting over 6:1 on the call.)

Turn($360): 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets $150. Villain thinks forever, curses, mumbles "I know I'm beat here," and calls.

---------------------------------

What do you think of this line?

The turn was a perfect card for me IMO, because I now have the villain drawing to three outs (EDIT: oops, four. I don't actually have that six that I'm representing.. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). I know he can't call a significant bet with unimproved AA on the river, so I can force him out of the pot.. unless my straight hits, in which case I'm confident that he'll call my value bet. BobboFitos pointed out to me the one angle I hadn't thought of as this hand played out, which is that a third six means death for me on the river as well.

Comments please on all streets, and the following river possibilities:

River ($760): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets $200.

River ($760): Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets $400.


-dB

[kurto]

I like it... except for...

"Villain thinks forever, curses, mumbles "I know I'm beat here," and calls."

My concern would be that he might be too stubborn to fold on the river.

Have you seen anyone else bluff him? Has he laid down any big pairs before?

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
My concern would be that he might be too stubborn to fold on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I was very worried about this, but I ultimately thought I had him figured out. (this is why I love B&M play as opposed to the Internet!)

I hadn't seen him fold any big pairs, but I'd seen him fold when he knows he's beat. This table wasn't big on showing bluffs, but I had a feeling he was bluffed out of one pot, in which he had an inferior but best holding (he showed top pair, weak kicker) but couldn't call against a big bet from a player who most likely had trash.

The reason I was confident that he would fold here was that he seemed reluctant to part with his money. I put his threshold on the river at about $250 -- I thought he would call $200 with an unimproved AA, but that he was good enough to consider letting it go for almost 1/2 of what remained of his stack.

-dB

[Bongo]

If your read is that good, then go ahead and bluff. Online I would never bluff again after the first bluff failed. If I decide to semi-bluff the turn I'd bet bigger (pot bet) or go for a check raise semi-bluff. How else can you knock him out? I don't use the semi-bluff a lot however, that is, I almost never try to knock my opponents off of hands such as top pair or overpairs. At $1/2 online people hold on to these hands.

[dtbog]

Just one bump for the daytime crowd?

-dB

[parttimepro]

I would think you might need a bigger bluff on the river. Personally I would call a 1/2 pot bet with AA in that situation unless I had a read that my opponent was a nut-peddler.

That said, I don't like your line in general. So, you're playing 87o as an implied odds hand. That could be okay if you know a deep stack will pay you off with unimproved pocket pair when you hit your straight. This is incompatible with your turn and river bluffing strategy, where you expect him to fold unimproved pocket pair to half a pot bet. Not to mention you're out of position, and there's a side pot you're guaranteed to lose.

I don't know what to think about him muttering that he's probably beat. This seems like either a horrible tell or cheesy acting.

I fold pf. As you probably found out, 87o also has substantial reverse implied odds when you flop a draw and miss...

[dtbog]

River: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero bets $200, villain curses his ass off and calls.

Villain storms off, leaving the table. We don't see his cards. He'd been planning to leave at the dealer change anyway, so I don't feel bad about chasing the money off the table.

I got a lot of feedback after this hand-- about four people tell me they thought I had 55, for fives full on the turn. One guy says I "took it easy" on villain on the river, but two others say that he probably would have folded to a bigger bet.

All-in-all, I liked the way I played this hand against this opponent, but I liked the feedback about the side-pot.. I admittedly wasn't worrying too much about it and was concentrating on the villain.

-dB

[dtbog]

(and yes... excepting a pot from later in the session when I held threes full against trip jacks, this ~$1120 pot was the biggest I've ever won. woo!)

-dB

[foldem]

Glad it worked out. Too bad the villian didn't stick around and steam off the rest of his stack [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[kurto]

I'm glad it worked out. But I think now you can see that a bluff would have failed. Even with the straight on the board, he called your bet.

I think you got really lucky. But had that 4 not hit, this would have been a posting about a bluff gone bad.

When he called your turn bet when he thought he was beat tells me he was likely was going to (stupidly) call regardless of what card fell.