5/10, top trips, top kicker. 3bet? - Page 2

W. Deranged · #11 11-13-2005, 06:00 PM

An 11% pre-flop raiser might open raise 88 and 99 here, but they both need discounting, in my opinion. He'd always raise AK, maybe KQ, and possibly KJs. I don't think he's ever open-raising KTs UTG if he's really an 11.

There are 3 AKs, 4 KQ, 1 KJs; 3 88 and 3 99. I think we need to discount 88, 99, KQ, and KJs a little bit. The point is, though, that we do not have a clear equity edge (note we are chopping here a bunch of the time), and certainly not the 66% we need to merit risking two bets to win one.

We should also consider that sometimes this is something weird like JJ or maybe a pure bluff, but a three-bet isn't getting called in those situations anyway.

So I think we can just call here. It is important to realize that it really isn't all that likely that we are up against a worse K. The most likely result may actually be something like JJ, but I think that this taggish type might fold to a three-bet anyway and so I don't really see the point in a three-bet.

The basic thing I can come to is that,

Redd · #12 11-13-2005, 06:07 PM

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btw it does really look like 99 or a misplayed 88.

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Does this imply that you feel Villain played well if he had 99 here? I didn't do the math that closely but it looks Villain would be at least a 4:1 dog to Hero's 3-betting range, getting 5:12 on a calldown or 3:10 if he can fold to our river bet UI.

Mister Z · #13 11-13-2005, 07:38 PM

It might be really weak of me, but against a player with these stats I would probably just call. His river C/R indicates more that just 'I have a King' to me. I might be very wrong. Given the amount of times that we split or get capped and lose, I don't think 3-betting is profitable. Villain here is probably not trying to squeeze value out of the PF 3-bettor with his KQ. AK, 99, and 88 seem like the most likely holdings.

Mister Z · #14 11-13-2005, 07:43 PM

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From my limited experience in the 5/10 you are getting c/r'd or donked by any K sooner almost always.

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This was my thought as well. The K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would have check-raised the turn at least. This guy suddenly wakes up on the river...

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This and the fact that you have a read on him as being a decent player is the most important factor of the decision IMO.

paperboyNC · #15 11-13-2005, 09:13 PM

UTG shows K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the oddly played case king.

W. Deranged · #16 11-13-2005, 09:17 PM

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UTG shows K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the oddly played case king.

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I think villain's line here is kind of interesting and may have some merit.

If he reads you as taggish he has to know you're value-betting hands like QQ and AA on this river, but might find a fold with those hands earlier if you put the pressure on. By check-raising the river, he also probably shuts down a hand like AK (as happened exactly here) and so doesn't risk totally spewing against a bigger K. His line got in 2.5 BB minimum and usually 3.5 max, while reducing the risk of spewing more against a bigger hand.

Kind of interesting. Not necessarily best, but certainly interesting. It's kind of a modified wa/wb idea.

toss · #17 11-13-2005, 09:21 PM

How would you play villain's hand here? I'd probably lead the flop and call if raised then donkbet the turn. I think this line would bet best if I knew Hero was aggr.

W. Deranged · #18 11-13-2005, 09:25 PM

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How would you play villain's hand here? I'd probably lead the flop and call if raised then donkbet the turn. I think this line would bet best if I knew Hero was aggr.

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Well, I personally think there are a zillion possible ways to play this hand. The idea is simply to make sure that 2.5-3.5 BB go in total. I think check-call, check-call, bet-call is fine. I think check-call, bet-call, bet/calldown river is pretty good to. The main point is that I just don't want any street to go unbet, I don't want to give villain an obvious place to fold QQ or something like that, and I don't want to put in too many bets against an opponent with AK. Bet-call, bet-call is also fine I think. I'd be more inclined to take a bet-early line if I thought it was likely villain would raise me with a hand like QQ or JJ.

paperboyNC · #19 11-13-2005, 09:51 PM

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How would you play villain's hand here? I'd probably lead the flop and call if raised then donkbet the turn. I think this line would bet best if I knew Hero was aggr.

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I'd check/raise the flop and lead the turn. Worst case scenario is check/call the flop, villian checks behind on the turn and then folds to my river bet.