Are my odds better than they seem?

[pzhon]

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Thanks for the criticism. I'm sorry if my play offended you, but what's done is done.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why would bad play offend me?

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We obviously don't think along the same lines. If my posts are that upsetting, I'd appreciate it if you just didn't reply.

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Did you come to 2+2 to brag about bluffing off your stack, or to learn something? When you post lousy analysis, I'll rebut it if I feel like it, whether you appreciate it or not.

[RiverDood]

It's fascinating analysis -- and Hero did a fine job of identifying all the cards that would bring Villain to the brink of folding.

But the key fact is right in the opening description. You're up against a "tight, somewhat predictable player." In my experience, Tight/SPPs hate to lay down super-premium hands. They grimace, they squirm and they sweat when the board throws up scare cards. But they've been waiting two hours to jam the pot when AA or KK shows up. No matter what's on the board, they just can't get away from those hands.

So accept the fact right away that getting him to the brink of folding isn't the same as getting him to fold. Let his massive preflop overbet take down a small pot. Then get even by hijacking his blinds on the next five orbits.

It's easier, more profitable and less stressful.

[damaniac]

Even assuming your hand range is correct and your equity is correct, your evaluation is flawed. The 2.33:1 only counts if you see all 5 cards. You will usually need to pay more money on the flop, so your odds are substantially worse.

[R_Ellender]

That's a good point you make. Alot of players have a hard time laying down a premium pair, and there I go, trying to bluff someone off of one.

I've used similar plays with some degree of success, but only once can I remember making someone lay down KK in a ring game. Against this player, I'll make sure that I save that wasted river bet for some blind stealing.

[R_Ellender]

Yes, my effective odds need to be taken into account. I'll have to find a good resource on flop probabilities so I can make better decisions preflop. Know any?

[R_Ellender]

Well your previous post wasn't helpful at all, and this one is going nowhere. It seemed the bad play had to offend you because you felt you had to criticize me, and I came to 2+2 to learn something, but I don't think you are fit to teach.

I don't see how "your play was poor, your analysis was poor, etc.." does anything to give me help. Also, "fold AT against a tight raiser" is just "if A, then do B" advice, and the fact that no two situations are alike make that statement incorrect.

I'm sure you will quote each line of this post, and make a comment to go with each, but I don't see where that could help either one of us. However, I'll still give thanks for your help in your previous posts, if that is what you were trying to offer.

[pzhon]

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Well your previous post wasn't helpful at all,

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I suggested that you don't have nearly enough data to be so sure your opponent has KK, and gave a number of different possible hands he might have instead. I also said that if you have had a lot of experience playing him, he has probably observed you bluffing frequently. I also pointed out that you not only didn't pick up the pot, you lost a lot of extra chips when one of your bluffing outs hit.

If you didn't find that helpful, the fault is yours, not mine.

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I don't think you are fit to teach.

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That is a pathetic ad hominem attack. If you are so satisfied with your overconfidence in your reads, your misanalysis, and your poor play, feel free to ignore my advice. I will ignore you henceforth.

[R_Ellender]

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I will ignore you henceforth.

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Thank you.

[Iconoclastic]

Good original post. The thing that struck me was that the 75% estimate of him folding to the scare cards was probably where you went wrong. Congrats on the good read on his hand btw, it's a sign of great talent to narrow it down that much and apply it.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Good original post. The thing that struck me was that the 75% estimate of him folding to the scare cards was probably where you went wrong. Congrats on the good read on his hand btw, it's a sign of great talent to narrow it down that much and apply it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Appy it???? Am I missing something here? First he correctly puts the player on a big hand, then he calls preflop, on the flop on the turn and then bluffs off his stack on the river? Where did he apply his read? What he did is talk himself into putting the player on some other bluffable hand then proceeded to throw away his chips.