Fold to this obvious river value bet?

[Ghazban]

Live 1/2, 9- or 10-handed. 1 person limps, LAG directly to my right makes it $8 to go. He is probably a 70/40 (VP$IP/PFR) player so this raise doesn't mean anything. I have ~$200 and he has me covered. I make it $25 straight in CO with QQ. SB calls ([img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]), limper folds, LAG calls. LAG's call means he probably has two small cards (possibly connected, possibly not), a pair, or AK. He raises often preflop and calls a lot of reraises but he stays away from potentially dominated hands (KQ, AJ, etc.) when he's getting reraised. If he suspects his cards are live, he'll almost always call the reraise.

Flop 543r (~$75)

SB checks, LAG checks, I bet $60. SB folds, LAG calls. LAG could have anything or nothing here. The flopped straight is a possibility, as is something like 2-pair, 82s, or AK.

Turn 543 6 ($195)

He checks, I check behind.

River 5436 7 - no flush possible ($195)

He bets $50.

[Bongo]

An auto-bluff situation for you opponent. He knows you don't have an eight. I would also fold in your position but I wouldn't be happy about it.

[PinkSteel]

So it's lose $50 or net $97.50 on the split. Does he have the eight 2/3 of the time or more?

Probably, but he really could just be pushing you out. Good bet on his part.

I'd call for the additional information value, but being clueless I place a premium on information. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TheWorstPlayer]

Don't call to split. You're playing the board. Fold.

[subzero]

I'm calling on the chance that he's bluffing. I've seen people make value bets on the river as a bluff. If I make a mistake by calling, it costs me $50. If I make a mistake by folding, it costs me the entire pot. By calling, you also learned that he incorrectly chased his gutshot. And, as others have said, you got some advertising value for future bluffs against you.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling on the chance that he's bluffing. I've seen people make value bets on the river as a bluff. If I make a mistake by calling, it costs me $50. If I make a mistake by folding, it costs me the entire pot. By calling, you also learned that he incorrectly chased his gutshot. And, as others have said, you got some advertising value for future bluffs against you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're more or less right, but I'm a nit so I'll point out that I can't possibly win the entire pot as I'm playing the board straight. Folding here can only cost me half the pot.

This hand plus another bad call I talked myself into based on a couple backdoor draws, a weak made hand, and the (slim) possibility that I might be ahead cost me a lot of money last night. I am coming to grips with the fact that I grossly overvalue metagame considerations, even given that I play against the same core group of people every Tuesday.

[subzero]

[ QUOTE ]
You're more or less right, but I'm a nit so I'll point out that I can't possibly win the entire pot as I'm playing the board straight. Folding here can only cost me half the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm a newb for overlooking that. My mistake.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Don't pay 25BB for metagame considerations at SSNL. Half these guys forget that they played against you before and the other half only remember two or three monster hands you won and probably not even how you played them. Seriously.