Texas Holdem Hand

Steve Giufre · #1 12-09-2005, 05:41 AM

BB is aggro but winning (28/15). BB is solid thinking player (19/10)

Party Poker 50.00/100.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Steveg12 is MP3 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, Steveg12 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG+2 calls, Steveg12 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+2 folds, Steveg12 raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Steveg12 caps, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Steveg12 calls, Button raises, BB 3-bets,

Now what? How about the turn so far?

calmasahinducow · #2 12-09-2005, 06:01 AM

I think the pot is large enough to call down but I don't see a hand you're beating besides AQ based on the preflop raise from the BB. You are behind JJ, QQ, AA and there's no way KK does that on the turn and AK does that on the flop from BB's perspective.

goofball · #3 12-09-2005, 06:37 AM

I'm a little iffy about the PF limp after one limper only.

Edited becaues I misread the action and though it was heads on the turn. I think you should have raised the turn. Given that you didn't, ugh. Even if BB is aggro he's gotta have a strong hand. If has a set you're dead, and if he has two pair there go 6 of your outs. Button did all that calling and now pops it I think he's got the nuts. Ugh, my mind, brain and soul all hurt as I say fold but...

Also, is BB the aggro but winning player or the solid thinking player?

etizzle · #4 12-09-2005, 06:39 AM

i get the feeling aggro=BB but i'm not sure

etizzle · #5 12-09-2005, 06:38 AM

i must say, i've never folded a set on a rainbow board but this is the time to do it. Buttons range IMO is QJ or KT, heavily weighted towards KT both because of combinations and not 3 betting the flop. BB's range is KTs (gotta be discounted a lot), JJ, QQ, and AA.

Plug those two into pokerstove and I believe its gonna be ugly. Here ya go:

Board: 2h Jd Qh Ah
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 06.2124 % 06.21% 00.00% { 2c2d }
Hand 2: 42.7386 % 39.67% 03.07% { AA, QQ-JJ, KTs }
Hand 3: 51.0491 % 47.98% 03.07% { KTs, QJs, KTo, QJo }

I think this is a fold, and if you believe my ranges (they are pretty much a lock for button IMO), then this is a fold by a mile. Personally I would call down and be really pissed, although after this analysis I hope I would fold it.

bugstud · #6 12-09-2005, 06:41 AM

can the button have Th9h here?

Steve Giufre · #7 12-09-2005, 12:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
can the button have Th9h here?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop I put him on KT or 109. I cant see him taking all that heat with just a Q, and I think he knows better than to smooth call the flop with QJ. Once he raised the turn, I was really more less thinking K10 and not much else, and the BB should know this, which is what makes his turn three bet even more scary.

Great responses so far I think. I am curious to hear more about the first decision on the turn, call VS raise.

andyfox · #8 12-09-2005, 01:14 PM

Sure seems like your in, at best, second place on the turn, and you might be drawing to a one-outer. I agree with your "scary" characterizaton of the BB's actions, especially considering he bet into your flop cap when an ace came. An ace comes on the turn and a guy still bets after there's been a lot of flop action, and my experience is that he's either got snow or a hand where he wants to be raised.

Now you see why I don't (hardly ever) play deuces. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Steve Giufre · #9 12-09-2005, 01:21 PM

Now you see why I don't (hardly ever) play deuces. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree with you and others that Im taking a little bit of the worst of it limping behind there. Its just that calling is way more fun than folding. Thats gotta count for something right?

mc1023 · #10 12-09-2005, 07:22 AM

Bottom set with that much action on that kind of board I don't think your going to win here much based on the description of the players, their positions, and their flop actions.

clear fold IMO, your going to lose a lot of bets when behind and even when ahead you could get drawn out and really can't maximize the situation since you have to go into call-down mode at this point.