$50 PLO8 hand

[jthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
Not this A2s. It's getting a playable flop with positive expectation less than 10% of the time (and then just barely). And five callers are bad for your likely equity, not good. You'll just about never make a decent high with this hand and you're likely splitting for low if it does come (or getting counterfeited). I believe you're directly losing money by raising this preflop.

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How do you figure +EV less than 10% of the time? Next, you're also discounting the effect of bluffing the flop in position. Or you can take a free card if it's checked to you. There are several good reasons to raise this hand. No it's not a premium hand. Yes, it could be better. But it's still a hand worth raising in position.

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This is NOT a hand to wait and see if the turn is a safe card. Your equity is unlikely to increase past its current point with another card.

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That's incorrect. It will increase, and significantly so, depending on your opponents' cards. In either case, I've already said I don't think it's a bad play either way.

[FeliciaLee]

Okay, since I like to mess around with two dimes, I did some sims.

If six people see the flop with this hand (as was the case, if I'm reading it correctly), here are the pre-flop percentages:

6s Ad 2d Th 10459 20527 77753 0 38431 26752 4592 0.329
Qs Js 4h 2h 2934 8476 87670 2134 13809 36696 3632 0.132
Ks Qd Ah 3h 4884 13276 84067 937 13809 36696 3632 0.167
4s 8c 3d 7h 4652 27957 69879 444 7679 67809 2672 0.203
Tc 9c Jd Qh 3425 9030 82342 6908 0 0 0 0.084
Ts Kc Qc Jh 1213 11041 79710 7529 0 0 0 0.085

I just put in five random hands, along with the OP's real hand. I gave only him the A2, but made sure some of the other hands were suited, as well.

Surprise, surprise. He should raise it up. Of course, this is assuming that 1) no one else has an A2, suited or otherwise, 2) someone DOES have a likely second best low (A3), 3) the other hands really ARE this lousy.

So, I guess this is something to think about, and I'll address Phil's likely scenario (versus what really happened) in the next post...

[ QUOTE ]

6s Ad 2d Th 10459 20527 77753 0 38431 26752 4592 0.329
Qs Js 4h 2h 2934 8476 87670 2134 13809 36696 3632 0.132
Ks Qd Ah 3h 4884 13276 84067 937 13809 36696 3632 0.167
4s 8c 3d 7h 4652 27957 69879 444 7679 67809 2672 0.203
Tc 9c Jd Qh 3425 9030 82342 6908 0 0 0 0.084
Ts Kc Qc Jh 1213 11041 79710 7529 0 0 0 0.085

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL Felicia - did you deliberately choose hands that overlapped each other, had not a single pair, no other A2, and only two diamonds out of 20 cards? Funny stuff. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Let's make this a bit more realistic - the expected number of diamonds, the expected number of aces, a single pair of 10s, and an A2. 40 cards have been dealt out...flush cards, low hands, aces and pairs are selected for. This is a completely realistic average case scenario, not best case. I haven't even included any big hands or even A23:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1414504
6s Ad 2d Th 2610 11923 86252 105 1959 17154 39235 0.183
Qs Js 4h 2h 5489 11344 85110 1826 8111 33147 900 0.124
2s Qd Ah 5h 4094 9975 87375 930 9109 11844 39235 0.214
4s 8c 7d 3d 7152 28229 69988 63 5900 51616 432 0.204
Tc 5c Td Qh 8980 15164 83057 59 0 0 0 0.123
Ac Kc Qc Jd 8998 18948 76803 2529 0 0 0 0.153

Oops, where did our equity go? I agree that you do have a small equity edge preflop, but this hand is completely unplayable postflop except on a small number of flops. When money is going in, it will mostly be a money loser as it will rarely be a nut hand. Compare A29T or A266 with A26T for the chances of flopping a high equity hand, and the problem with this hand might become clearer (even though preflop equity doesn't change that much). Preflop to river equity doesn't give the whole story here.

Next step when I get time: add up the number of favorable flops six handed and work out how often we flop a decent, PLAYABLE hand that can make money (unless Buzz wants to do it for me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

[FeliciaLee]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL Felicia - did you deliberately choose hands that overlapped each other, had not a single pair, no other A2, and only two diamonds out of 20 cards? Funny stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]
No. I wish I could say I was being cute or clever. The plain truth is, however, that I simply can't think and process the way I used to. I have a hard time telling ranks and suits apart. I had a difficult enough time just making six, unduplicated hands, much less try to put any kind of real action into them. Sure, I knew I was giving them subpar hands, but that is about all I could process at the time. Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I did, however, purposely leave out any other suited ace with A2. Because in my limited experience in the $50 PLO8, these hands are usually raised pre-flop.

Not if you're playing me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I had a difficult enough time just making six, unduplicated hands, much less try to put any kind of real action into them.

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Me too. Just changing a few cards in your list kept getting me that annoying red message in twodimes:

<font color="red">error: duplicate card Ks</font>

Really [censored] annoying!

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that is about all I could process at the time. Sorry

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Don't sweat it Felicia, you give quality responses and I wouldn't have considered a bad A2 had that much equity without your post. And please don't apologise when you give better responses than most of the people on this site. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jthegreat]

[ QUOTE ]
6s Ad 2d Th 2610 11923 86252 105 1959 17154 39235 0.183
Qs Js 4h 2h 5489 11344 85110 1826 8111 33147 900 0.124
2s Qd Ah 5h 4094 9975 87375 930 9109 11844 39235 0.214
4s 8c 7d 3d 7152 28229 69988 63 5900 51616 432 0.204
Tc 5c Td Qh 8980 15164 83057 59 0 0 0 0.123
Ac Kc Qc Jd 8998 18948 76803 2529 0 0 0 0.153

Oops, where did our equity go? I agree that you do have a small equity edge preflop, but this hand is completely unplayable postflop except on a small number of flops.

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You're still wrong.

It doesn't matter if you only continue past the flop on a small number of flops. What matters is how much you make on those hands that you do.