Worthwhile River Bet?

[Jeffage]

I have AQs in the BB. Full game. Folded to unknown in the SB who raises, I reraise, he calls. Flop is 993r (suits don't matter). He checks, I bet, he calls. Turn is a 4. He check-calls again. The river is a king. He checks...is betting worth it here in the rare case he might fold a pair? Or will that never happen?

Thanks,
Jeff

[Nigel]

I would assume you are value betting, not bluffing.

[Jeffage]

Ok, I guess not interesting. I bet and he called and my hand was good. He called with A2. Good game.

Jeff

[MrStretchie]

[ QUOTE ]
I have AQs in the BB. Full game. Folded to unknown in the SB who raises, I reraise, he calls. Flop is 993r (suits don't matter). He checks, I bet, he calls. Turn is a 4. He check-calls again. The river is a king. He checks...is betting worth it here in the rare case he might fold a pair? Or will that never happen?

Thanks,
Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's gotten this far with a pair, he's almost certainly calling one more. Given the significant chance of a checkraise, I don't see value here. (Because I wouldn't want to fold to the river checkraise from an unknown.)

[etizzle]

yeah i would imagine he wouldve raised by now with a pair. It looks like your Q is good.

[onegymrat]

Hi Jeff,

Even though I read the results, I don't like a river bet, although your play was excellent all the way through. Such a sb move smells awfully like a small pp. Calling that turn bet seems like trouble. You have the nut no-pair, so you still have a showdown hand...somewhat. I would check.

[psyduck]

I don't think the river is a value bet at all.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
...is betting worth it here in the rare case he might fold a pair?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know--does "rare" mean "at least 15% of the time?"

[Your Mom]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the river is a value bet at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

On Party Poker, it sure as hell is. QJ and any ace will call- I've seen it too many times.