Why can't I fold...i know exactly what he has...!

[yellowjack]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: the idiot remark was classy, btw

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I know -- sorry. I wanted to remove it but it'd be like tampering with the scene of a crime so I only tried to explain it. It's my initial reaction to your quick reply, take it for what you will.

I know you are definitely a reasonable poster btw. Just not when I first read the response.

[tallstack]

This is not a great situation for the PF call. You have a likely passive raise UTG with a pretty aggressive player yet to act. I think that the PF call is marginal, but not likely a big leak either way. I don't think that this is the most critical part of the hand for me.

I don't know how you check-call this flop, though. Your hand is not really strong enough to slow play with 4 players seeing a flush draw flop. This flop seems a natural for the check-raise. As it turns out, the turn card was a pretty safe spot for a raise, but couldn't you have found out where you stood on the flop? Once it gets to the turn, I don't see how you can fold easily to the 3-bet with those pot odds. Maybe you can peel one off on the turn, but the odds on the river after the CO folds are making it hard not to call.

I think that if you want to play this hand then you need to get aggressive on this flop when it hits, or otherwise toss it right from the beginning. If you make your play on the flop and meet resistence then you find out what you need to know early and save yourself some bets on the big streets.

[C-Dog]

Why not checkraise the flop instead of the turn. If you get 3bet then you get some more info, and it costs you less. Once you decide to CR the turn, and he 3 bets you, I think you can make the laydown. This may have been a check/calling kind of hand though.

C-Dog

[LoaferGee12]

25/2. Why aren't we folding this preflop?

[LoaferGee12]

[ QUOTE ]
"roflol"

Maybe it's like I'm saying he's got 50 hands on him and no other reads, so don't cream your jeans about the stats. 10 just means 10%, not the top 10%. You'll find lots of guys with low PFR stats making funny raises. I can dig up some hands if you want.


[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, the preflop raiser is UTG .. 2%.

[climber]

Yeah this hand was all around messed up.

PF i think isnt too important.

Once I got an ace on the flop i want too excited casue i figured i had decent chance of being behind to UTG.
I cant really explain why but as soon as BB bet I "knew" like 90% he had my top pair beat or had two pair or a set. Maybe 80% two pair, %10 set. UTG's fold was weird....

UTG's fold is what really got me to stop taking seriously my read on BB. If UTG had ever raise or gotten invovled further I think I can get rid of this somehow...maybe--worst case i just check/call 1 bet a street.

This isn't the normal "ooh a piar--lets donk" idiot move. Given the preflop action and players I am convinced BB can beat a single pair when he donks the flop OOP into the PFR on the A-high flop.

So i just call hoping to improve.

UTG getting out left me thinking "OK LAG and calling station--maybe I'm best--lets c/r the turn..." not sure exactly where in there I decided to give up on my earlier read. This is the main reason I am posting this hand--I hate it when I do this...play without a continuous logical flow. and give away money in situatuions when i know better.

then i get 3-bet and start making up crap like "maybe he is going nuts with AT...." you know the routine

and if you call the turn you gotta call the river so there i go paying off like a moron.

[climber]

results: BB shows A4 and MHING

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
25/2. Why aren't we folding this preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sample size.

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Once you decide to CR the turn, and he 3 bets you, I think you can make the laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have so many hidden outs it is ridiculous.

[MrWookie47]

50 hands isn't everything, but it's something. PFR% converges fairly quickly. Sure, there is a chance that he's gotten nothing in 50 hands, but it's more probable that he doesn't raise all that much. That 2% statistic is currently our best estimate for his true PFR%, and completely disregarding it is foolish. We don't want to take it as gospel, either, but we can look and see that this guy probably isn't raising all that many hands preflop, and we're up against something good. Granted, there are exceptions. I was up against a guy on UB about a month ago who had a PFR of about 5%, but I was iso-3betting him with KJo, A8o, and stuff because he only raised junky hands. He slowplayed his good stuff. There aren't very many of these guys, though. Barring a real read, we can't assign a significant probability to this guy only raising his junk hands.

Just as we do Bayesian analysis when we consider hand ranges, the same math applies to opponent ranges. There's a probability this guy's true stats are 25/2. He might also be 30/10. Or 10/1. Or 40/20. He might be raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands, the 2nd 10%, or the bottom 10%. However, base on the ranges of players who, after 50 hands, have these stats, it's most probable that this guy has a VPIP of 20-30, a PFR of 1-7, and is raising from a subset of the top 10% of hands. Even if you want to completely disregard stats until you have thousands of hands of data on the guy, you're most correct to look at the average player from your database. This would be something like a VPIP of around 35, PFR around 12, and raises from a subset of the top 20% of hands. I'd strongly consider folding against this guy, too.

If someone is going to convince me that this is indeed a call preflop, especially in a 1/3 blind structure, you're going to have to make a much more convincing case than just saying "sample size too small."