When not to make a continuation bet

[ellipse_87]

OP's question was whether and how often to check the flop in position instead of making a continuation bet. If villain had seen hero cont. bet 100% after his preflop raises, then hero cost himself 150 chips in this hand by doing that. If on the other hand hero had checked a few draws and maybe a couple ragged flops previously, villain might have bet out here and hero saves those 150 chips.

So let's take this hand. Hero should bet most draws but check some. He's made cont. bets 100% previouly. So now, although certainly he may be giving up a chance to take the pot on the flop, why not check one? It may foil a checkraise, it may enable him to win chips against an overpair if the diamond comes, but most importantly it (1) subjects him to fewer checkraises from here on out, and (2) enables him to get chips on the turn sometimes with TP when opponent would have folded the flop, because hero's checks don't just mean made hands now, they mean missed flops too.

Cybr mentions this, check the flop only when you're able to extract value on the turn and the board's ragged, but this won't work if the table never sees hero check a missed flop after raising pf.

You also have to do this sometimes to set up some turn action that will give you a free showdown when you need it. Check-bet-raise-call on the flop cedes control of the hand to the out-of-position villain. Check-check, then bet-raise-call, lets you check the river behind, so now you're paying one street instead of three to see SD--this is invaluable sometimes but is never available to you if you auto-CB the flop, or check the flop in a predictable pattern.

[adanthar]

Without going into too many details and without saying that these are the only possible lines, here are some good flops to check J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] behind on with these stacks vs. a typical PF calling range:

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Some flops that can go either way:

Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Flops that I, personally, would always bet:

J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Half of this is straight out of SSH and I recommend anybody who doesn't get when to CB to read it.

[Proofrock]

Would you explain why you would check J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] behind on an A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] board?

This is one board where I would be perfectly happy getting all-in on the flop (with 15 outs making me a favorite against Villain's range).

[adanthar]

Because your FE on that board vs. him is somewhere between 0% and -5%.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Because your FE on that board vs. him is somewhere between 0% and -5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

And, you don't want to be on the calling end of a checkraise with 50% equity.

Being checkraised allin is bad. Being checkraised less than allin is also bad because the rest will go in on a blank turn.

[MLG]

This flush draw + gutshot is the only one I disagree with you on. You have 40% equity in the hand based on your hand strength, you dont many folds to justify following through on the flop.

Also to some degree what kind of flops you follow through on depends on how aggresive you are. I'm more aggresive than most so I get cred more than most, so I'm more likely to check a good draw because its more likely ill be forced to fold than a lot of plaers.

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
Because your FE on that board vs. him is somewhere between 0% and -5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe so, but you're a favorite against most of his likely holdings, right? You don't need FE to be +EV getting all-in on that flop. Are you suggesting it's more +EV to check behind? I haven't done checked the numbers, but given the stack sizes I'm dubious of this ...

[adanthar]

It's a double gutshot so you have 50%-ish, but I think you (I, you might not) get far more EV out of calling/raising his turn bet depending on what falls [my check behind/raise turn lines get, like, a *lot* more folds than yours do...] If I think it's a guy that will overbet 99 on the turn if I check behind as opposed to 'some donkey I've never seen', I'll bet it.

Anyway, I know MLG knows this, but to the rest of you -instead of looking at the individual flops I've listed, look at the pattern.