Making outs to odds conversion

[CrisBrown]

Hi all,

While we're discussing the utility of the 2%/4% rule, etc., it's worth noting that, however accurate your method for converting outs to odds, it won't matter unless you're consistently correct in counting your outs. In many cases for Hold'Em, a margin of one out can decide whether a call is +EV or -EV. Players often err by 2 or 3 outs or more.

As an extreme example, let's say you hold K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on a flop of J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hrmm ... 9 spades plus 3 Aces plus 3 9s plus your two overcards (another 6 outs) ... gee ... that looks like 21 outs, right?

Well, what if one opponent has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and and the other has 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="red">4</font> [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? Oops ... now you have only 6 outs to make a winner ... and both opponents have redraws, so your effective outs are down to only 4....

Cris