Semi-Bluffing; Limit vs. NL poker

[ossie99]

Ive been playing more and more no-limit, but with relative success when dealing with semi-bluffed hands. The upside is people tend to move off of their cards than limit games, but your essentially losing any value of drawing free cards(when in position) since you bet more on the flop. Any tips on avoiding this conundrum.
Thanks

[Louie Landale]

Sounds like you are saying that winning the pot doesn't overshadow the "benefit" of getting a free CHANCE to win the pot. Or are you suggesting that a smaller bet would have better EV, since it costs less when it doesn't work? If that's the case, then HEY, bet a lesser amount.

Besides, if you do get called you are MORE likely to get a "free" turn card.

- Louie

[CrisBrown]

Hi ossie,

In deep stack NL ring play, semi-bluffing in position on the flop is often (though not always) a mistake. It's usually better to take the free card, provided you also occasionally give a free card when you've made a strong hand vs. a draw board. The reasoning here is that, when you're on a draw, taking the free cards eliminates the risk of being check-raised off your semi-bluff. But if you never check behind with a made hand vs. a draw board, then observant opponents will see this and won't pay off your draws when they do hit.

Cris

[ACW]

[ QUOTE ]
But if you never check behind with a made hand vs. a draw board, then observant opponents will see this and won't pay off your draws when they do hit.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this point. If they never pay off when the draw card hits, the threat that you might have a made hand is irrelevant - they don't care whether the draw hit you or you were already ahead.

I can see the merit in sometimes checking a made hand to allow you to get away with a steal on the river when you miss with a drawing hand (they can't tell if you checked a made hand or missed the draw), but that's not the same thing at all.

[TomCollins]

This is terrible advice. If your draw has a 20% chance of hitting on the next card, but you have a 50% chance of taking the pot down right away, but still have a 20% chance when you are called of making your hand, this is a very strong move. Betting draws in NL is essential.

If you are getting checkraised a lot, push a few times on your strongest draws or made hands.

[ossie99]

Thanks for the imput guys. Just to clarify, I'll give you my real game scenerio, which brought me to this; I'm sitting QJ suited on the button. I have one mid-position limper, I limp, and both the blinds come in. Flop comes A,10,9. Rainbowed. Mid position Bets out, I come over the top and raise(3 times his bet) esentially this erases any value of buying the freecard at the turn b/c even if I miss and he checks, I've still payed 1.5 times the bet. However, in this instance, both blinds fold and the mid-position pushes in a massive bet. With the QJ both discounted(assuming that hes on the Ace and possibly/likely 2 paired, my only shot is the 8 outs to the str8. Pot odds are shot, and I've sacrificed without ever getting to see the turn or river. Where did I go wrong. Unlucky, maybe. But this has happened a few occasions so I'm beginning to doubt the values of semi's in a NL larger staked game. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[TomCollins]

You aren't going to be semi-bluffing to get a free card, or to save money as often as just trying to win it there. Part of the fun is, if you hit on the turn, you can put out an even bigger bet than before.

If he has a strong enough hand to push, you have to give it up.

But by raising, you might very well scare him with a good ace, such as AQ or AK to checking the turn becuase of the fear of two pair. If you just called, he will likely bet about the size of the pot, and you will be in a world of hurt. Calling is nice to be tricky, but I would normally raise as long as I had a backdoor flush draw. If I do, then I can catch up, or at least make a strong draw in a few ways.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Tom,

I really disagree about semi-bluffing draws with position. Sklansky advocates against it in The Theory of Poker, and I think for good reason, especially in NL where you don't have to build a pot. (In PL you do have to semi-bluff some of the time with position, just to make the pot worth winning if you do hit.)

Part of this goes to the size of the pot at the flop vs. the size of the pot you can win if you hit your hand. You probably aren't calling many pre-flop raises with suited connectors or weak suited Aces, so a lot of the time, when you are in a pot with a drawing hand, you're in an unraised pot. Let's say there are four limpers, so there's either 4 or 4.5xBB in the pot pre-flop. It's checked around to you, on the button. Your 50% steal equity is really worth a bit less than 2xBB, as some of the time you'll be reraised and have to fold your semi-bluff. You have a 20% chance to hit a strong hand at the turn, and when you do, you're likely to win a bigger pot because people will be more likely to bet marginal hands when the flop was checked through. So an opponent pots it, and maybe half the time one of the other limpers calls, so on average there's 10xBB in the pot when it gets to you. You'll have made your hand 20% of the time; that's 2xBB, already better than your steal equity at the flop, and often more if someone's hit enough to pay you off. And the 80% of the time when you've missed, you can get away from your hand without investing anything more in an unraised pot.

If the pot was raised pre-flop, or if someone bets out at the flop, maybe there's enough in the pot to make it worth winning now rather than taking a free draw. But based on your post on the Psych forum -- where you admit that you're bluffing too often -- this may be one of the leaks that you can plug when you get back to the game.

Good luck! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Cris

[Poker Gods]

Semi bluffing is something a lot of players do when they move over from Limit to No limit and is often overdone I think. It really depends on who your opponent is, basically you don't want him to call and you defintely don't want him to raise, if he does call then you want him to be either timid on the turn if he has a reasonable hand or else the type who will call a large bet if you do hit, overall though I think it is mostly though not always a costly play for you. Why not just flat call and if you get your hand who knows your opponent may not believe your big bet on turn.

What it boils down to is who is your opponent and his/her likely actions.