Who folds this river?

[Ryno]

HG 30-60. "Billy"* is a slightly too loose, slightly too passive, slightly too predictable on turn and river player. He doesn't do anything stupid and probably breaks even in the game.

MP limps, LP raises, I am the CO. Tight Button appears to be folding, so I coldcall with Jd9d. Button calls (whoops). SB calls. Billy, in the BB, 3bets. Called around. 6 players, 18SB.

Flop is J92, 2 clubs. Billy bets, LP calls, I raise, SB calls two cold, Billy calls, LP calls. 4 players, 13BB

Turn is a 5. They all check to me with that "go ahead white boy" look, except for Billy. He is not looking at me. I bet, SB calls, Billy checkraises. Folded back to me. I 3-bet. SB folds. Billy throws 6 chips into the pot. He looks unhappy. Headsup, 21BB.

If the board pairs on the river, and Billy bets, who is folding?

*name changed

[Clarkmeister]

I really dislike the preflop call.

[elysium]

hi ry

you must call the river betout by billy, even if the board pairs. you're heads-up and the pot is large enough to induce billy to take a stab at it a sufficient number of times to warrant calling him down with top pair on the paired board.

yeah ry, billyboo will have middle pair with a busted flush draw on the river, and several other possibilities, so many times that vis-a-vis the size of the pot, saving your little BB of a call would silly be. that's how you play billy and me, cuz.....all i wanna do is semi-bluff check-raise till the fat sizzles.

[ActionBob]

Shouldn't this thread be titled "Who folds this preflop?"

-ActionBob

[worm33]

if a jack or a nine comes on the river i would raise. If a smaller card pairs I would fold. Calling here would be about the worst waste of a bet ever.

[BWebb]

Fold preflop. If board pairs 5 or 2, easy fold.

[Ryno]

"I really dislike the preflop call."

But...I have Caro's Professional Hold 'Em Report and it clearly states...

Seriously though, I have done numerous computer simulations (with bots, not "all run to showdown" stuff) on what you can play for a raise on the button. J9s is not always playable, but in a game leaning towards loose and passive, it comes out slightly positive. Plus I have a large informational advantage on my opponents and can fold good.

My position relative to the PFR stinks, but I had a better line on her than any other player.

If I did not have the fold tell on the button though, I dump it. It was pretty reliable, so I think he called *because* I called.

[andyfox]

Is Billy capable of playing AcKc like this? I agree all signs point to him having a pocket overpair.

If the river pairs, is Billy capable of folding said overpair if you raise?

[Ryno]

After thinking about it some more, maybe he could play AcKc this way, but I doubt it. On the other hand, it's so hard to put me on J9 given my mega-nit image that he probably doesn't think a paired board helps him, so he'd check to me with AA/KK. Elsyium mentioned pair plus draw, although the Jack was a club and he probably isn't 3betting Ac9c into a field.