The Nut Flush Draw

[onegymrat]

Commerce 20/40 game. Table is terrific. Two limpers to me on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I limp along. SB and BB calls. Five to the flop.

FLOP: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, BB bets, EP calls, MP (tight player raises), I'm next to act. Call or reraise?

All comments welcome. Thanks in advance.

[sfer]

Thrizzle bizzle. I would also raise preflop some amount of the time.

[CardSharpCook]

why in the world would you raise PF???? Yeah, I like the 3bet here. You're likely to get 2 callers and also likely to secure the free card. Needless to say, I'd have to be drunk to raise PF with suited ace-rag in a multi-way pot.

[ QUOTE ]
why in the world would you raise PF???? Yeah, I like the 3bet here. You're likely to get 2 callers and also likely to secure the free card. Needless to say, I'd have to be drunk to raise PF with suited ace-rag in a multi-way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this quote 100%, raising this mediocre hand preflpo after 2 limpers accomplishes nothing. If there were like 5 limpers, I could see an argument for raising or if the hero was in the cutoff I again could see a weak argument for raising to win the button. Neither of those scenarios is present in this hand and even if they were I still think calling is the better option. I would also 3 bet the flop for the same reasons already listed. It is likely a good raise for value since I would expect atleast 2 callers and the hero is very likely to get a free card on the turn. Also if everyone folds back to the original raiser, this is also a good situation since the hero will be more likely to win the pot if he spikes an ace on the turn or river.

[andyfox]

A 3-bet might well get you a "free" card on the turn and it also might clean up some outs. And if it doesn't, it makes a big pot and you're drawing to the nuts.

Pre-flop, I prefer raising here with the button, especially if my opponents are passive and don't play so well post-flop. As they've all limped, it's not unlikely I have the best hand and if the flop is to my liking, they'll be more likely to stick around with peepee-caca.

[private joker]

I like a 3-bet here for the reasons Andy stated. Cleaning up an A out is important if MP has a hand like KQ and one of the limpers has something like AT or A4. If it comes back to you and gets capped, it's not too big a problem because you have at least 35% equity in this pot.

At the Commerce 20/40, you can be sure that once somebody calls 1 bet on the flop, they're calling 3. People don't get forced out on flops there.

[KramerTM]

STOP PLAYING AT TABLES WITH TERRIFIC PLAYERS! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

For real though, I really hate calling here. I much prefer the 3-bet as there is a chance you can occasionally get a QT to fold here and be HU against a K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Fantasies aside, I think the pot is big enough where you have enough pot equity to warrant a raise. Not to mention that I think you will often get checked to on the turn allowing you to see a free river card.

3-bet. You have 9 clean outs and potentially 12, with a long-shot runner runner straight draw.

[gh9801]

[ QUOTE ]
why in the world would you raise PF???? Yeah, I like the 3bet here. You're likely to get 2 callers and also likely to secure the free card. Needless to say, I'd have to be drunk to raise PF with suited ace-rag in a multi-way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a quick word on why we might raise preflop here, courtesy of our friend Izmet the Derb:

[ QUOTE ]
Thin Preflop Raising Against the Fish 

Posted By: Izmet Fekali 

Date: Sunday, 26 December 1999, at 10:47 a.m. 

In Response To: Re: Beginnerish Type Question (SammyB)

Sammy seyz: 

> With Axs, if you're going to play it at all, you want to see the flop
> as cheaply as possible. So, raising and voluntarily putting more
> money i the pot would be wasteful.

This is false.

Raising with Axs becomes profitable when there are enough loose limpers in play. For example, A4s will win more than 14.3% (which is about fair share of the 7-way pots) against 6+ opponents and will therefore profit from the six+ limping opponents putting more money in the pot preflop.

I set up three 100000-run Turbo sims to at least try to back up the claims. Here are the results, disregard at will:

1. In no fold'em simulation (no betting, no folding to the river), A4s won 20.8% of the pots against exactly 6 opponents. This is way above it's fair share, which means if you are about to go all in, it is profitable to raise the blinds and 4+ limpers with A4s. If there is betting on the flop and beyond, your chances are even better as some competitors will get knocked out while you are drawing to gutshots and whatnot for free.

2. I ran a $10-20 simulation with a bunch of loose players and a good player on the button with A4s. The player with A4s on the button folded to a raise in front, but raised himself when there were 4 or more limpers in (aside from the blinds). In this situation, A4s won 19.1% of the pots (which is way more than fair share) and earned $15.40 per hand.

3. The third sim was same as no. 2 (same flops, same cards in opponent's hands), except A4s tried to see the flop cheaply (no raise). As before, A4s on the button folded to a raise in front and only limped behind the fish. Here, A4s won 18.9% of the pots and earned $12.72 per hand.

Comments:

According to Turbo, limping behind loose limpers with A4s is about $3 mistake in a $10-20 game. The situation is similar (to a lesser extent) with even Q5s (which is as low as I go, suited jacks with no kicker are unplayable), although I'd prefer seven or more loose opponents to raise with suited no-kickered queens. With a suited ace, king or queen, the best ROI (return on investment) against multiple limpers is obtainable by putting as much money as possible in preflop and then going all-in to avoid being pushed off the hand or risking more money when outkicked. This is useful information for all the cheaters out there playing hold'em online. There are many opportunities to profitably disconnect yourself at the right moment, forcing the profitable all-in play.

And of course, keep in mind that raises with suited aces, kings and queens no kicker increase your variance and establishes you as a maniac in the eyes of your opponents. You might not wish to do that. Or you just might, do whatever works for you. Also, good play on the flop is mandatory, which includes much folding when you strongly suspect you are outkicked with the ace on the flop. As Turbo profiles cannot be as smart as you can, I believe the above numbers can even be improved against the fish.

For all the infidels out there in habit of distrusting computer sims, I urge you to give some thin preflop raising a try when in California-type loose fishy games. I have a feeling you could be pleasantly surprised.

-- 

Izmet Fekali 

Burek Experts Ltd. 

Catering the World since 1389!

[/ QUOTE ]

From: http://izmet.fekali.com/

Ok, so this pot only has 2 limpers instead of 5 like in Izmet's example... but I think it's applicable as A7s has more value than A4s and probably wins more than 33% of the time against random fish hands

[W. Deranged]

This strikes me as a very standard three-bet. You've got all the following going for you:

1. Position
2. Nut draw
3. Ability to take a free card
4. Possibility to secure a free card
5. Equity edge against as few as two others opponents (probably)
6. Some metagame value in confusing your opponents by three-betting with a draw...

And so on... The SB check-dude is usually folding anyway so there's no reason to call to encourage his action. Forcing out the BB bettor isn't much of a concern either as he's clearly going to call pretty often and sometimes even if he does fold he may be folding a hand you want him to...

[onegymrat]

Thank you all for the replies. It just secures my thoughts that I may have made the wrong decision yet again. I was just so intent on raising the flop when MP, who is a pretty good tight player, beat me to it. He threw me for a loop. I was pretty sure I would clear the entire field by three-betting (although Private Joker made a very good case for doing so), with the exception of MP, and didn't think of ALL the other reasons why I should do so (like folding a weak queen, cleaning up overcards and better aces, not making the flush and folding everyone, etc.).

I only called, SB folds and limpers called. Four to the turn.

TURN: Some [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and I make my flush.

Checked to me, I bet. Folded to MP, who thinks for a while and mucks while flashing a Q.