Live 15/30 Flop Decision

[mike l.]

"Or do 15/30 livers play a very predictable game?"

yes they do.

[onegymrat]

Hi Rick,

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My experience is that about 60% of lead bets by an unknown player after this pre flop sequence with this flop indicate no ace. That said, you also have the SB in, so this increases the chances that an ace is out.


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I've been playing some incredibly UNimaginative poker lately and can't seem to see the simplicity of this hand, or is it simple? I put my options in this order: fold, raise, call. But your suggestion is the reverse.

With this sequence, is it TOO obvious that MP raised and then only called my 3-bet with a big ace that I am overlooking the possibilty of KQ, 99 and below, etc? So seeing the unimaginative "obvious" play of an opponent makes me an easy target to make a move on?

I have no idea what I'm trying to say.

[onegymrat]

Hi Lawrence,

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So, do you take that chance weighing/factoring all this in?

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No, not all of it. However, I do agree with you about raising being the best option IF I chose to play on. If it were headsup, I may have popped him one to see his reaction, but with the SB (calls too much but plays okay) cold-calling three cold, I just didn't want to chance being up against the ace. I guess a raise would have definitely gotten some better answers, but I didn't want to spend the dough.

Again, as I stated to Rick, very unimaginative poker lately and I can't break out of it.