Live 15/30 Flop Decision

[onegymrat]

Seven-handed currently. Unknown MP open-raises. Folded to me in CO, I 3-bet with 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Button folds, SB (okay playing old lady, but calls too much) cold-calls three cold. BB folds. MP calls. Three to the flop.

FLOP: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks, MP bets. I fold. SB calls.

Was this fold too easy?

[mike l.]

perfect. that is the way to play live 15-30. fold when they bet and bet when they check.

[Rick Nebiolo]

My experience is that about 60% of lead bets by an unknown player after this pre flop sequence with this flop indicate no ace. That said, you also have the SB in, so this increases the chances that an ace is out.

Your options are either to call and see if you slow the action or pop it at least once. Folding is a mistake. Also note you are half way to getting the odds to spiking a set even if the ace is out.

The fact you don't have a spade hurts you, but not enough to make this a fold except known, predictable opponents.

I think mike l. was pulling your leg [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[siegfriedandroy]

was mike l really being sarcastic? Or do 15/30 livers play a very predictable game? mike l- please elaborate. are you right or is rick?

[Gabe]

I agree with mike.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with mike.

[/ QUOTE ]

No you don't. You just like to bust my nuts.

Also, mike was actually being only half sarcastic, which is about average for him.

~ Rick

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
Seven-handed currently. Unknown MP open-raises. Folded to me in CO, I 3-bet with 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Button folds, SB (okay playing old lady, but calls too much) cold-calls three cold. BB folds. MP calls. Three to the flop.

FLOP: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks, MP bets. I fold. SB calls.

Was this fold too easy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty decent pot here OGR. What range of hands can put the SB and MP with?

You have position here.

You have a flush draw on that board.

Did you take all this into consideration before making a fold? There's a good chance MP could have KQ spades, or possibly a pocket pair too say 99-QQ (a lot of players won't cap with JJ,QQ in live games). And yes of course there's also a good chance he could have AK, AQ.

Now if you fold you make squat. You give everything up and there are times that this is the best play. But not in this particular hand. You got some good EV here with a good perctange of the time being the best hand against a bad caller who is OOP and against an unknown.

So calling is pretty brutal here. I don't like flat calling a flop bet here. And folding sucks cuz I can't win. So there's only 1 option left - raise. Then see what happens.

if checked to you on the turn, I bet, see what happens.

River is where you obviously check it down unless you smack the ten.

So best case scenario is that this cost you 2 more BB to win a potential 10 BB pot or whatever it's going to be. Pretty good risk to take here in this hand, don't ya think?

Of course that's the best case scenario. What about the worst? You raise the flop, it gets re-raised. Now if you decide to go to showdown it's gonna cost you 3.5 BB. Still the pot is a pretty good size here.

So, do you take that chance weighing/factoring all this in?
It's all up to you...

Lawrence

[andyfox]

"I agree with mike"

Standard.

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]

was mike l really being sarcastic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mike l is never sarcastic.... </sarcasm off> [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Lawrence

[mike l.]

"I think mike l. was pulling your leg"

no. ask lmd what he thinks.