giants BSP this week?

bugstud · #1 11-17-2005, 04:32 AM

seems like everyone I know is all over this one, which has me realllly wary.

jedinite · #2 11-17-2005, 05:00 PM

Lot of BSP-type picks this week. Challenge is to find the ~65% that are really BSPs and not the ~45% where the general public is correct.

I haven't been able to get to any real research yet this week, so I won't be able to comment effectively on any of the specific games until tomorrow...

holeplug · #3 11-17-2005, 05:50 PM

I think the game will come down to if Tiki Barber can run the ball. The Eagles have been exremely effective shutting down the run at home this season but not as much on the road. I think Coughlin realized he f-ed up back asking his QB, that is only completing about 50% of his passes, to throw 48 times last week eventhough the game was close for 4 quarters.

noddyholder · #4 11-17-2005, 07:37 PM

I am new to sportsbetting. Why is it so good to bet against the public? Sorry if this is a dumb question.

CrazyN8 · #5 11-17-2005, 07:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am new to sportsbetting. Why is it so good to bet against the public? Sorry if this is a dumb question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the bookies are good at setting lines that will make the public jump all over them. If a line seems to good to be true, then it usually is.

Allin72 · #6 11-17-2005, 07:47 PM

interesting, where would one find this chart? thanks

legend42 · #7 11-17-2005, 08:21 PM

I don't think BSP picks, or at least the concept on which they're based, apply to this type of game. These weird situations- like the Eagles losing two absolutely crucial offensive players in consecutive weeks- will often confound the linesmakers even more than the public.

The BSPs, as I understand them, are usually aimed at standard games where the linesmakers have seemingly set the spread deliberately to attract the public into backing what appears to be the better team. I don't see this as one of those cases.

2+2 wannabe · #8 11-17-2005, 10:17 PM

jets will cover, and that's my VINNY THE SHARP LOCK OF THE WEEK

jedinite · #9 11-18-2005, 11:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am new to sportsbetting. Why is it so good to bet against the public? Sorry if this is a dumb question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those picks highlighted in green (at the end of the week, this was obviously a snapshot taken the day I posted it) are about 45% winners for the year, and that trend has been pretty solid at approx 45% for the last five years (which is the same as the length of time the site in question has been operating).

Obviously that doesn't mean every one of the so-called "consensus picks" are going to lose - obviously they're only going to lose at ~45% which means fading them all has automatic value - but people that are betting only one game, it just gives you a ~5% confidence factor that the game you're picking is a winner if you're fading the public consensus there. Obviously not enough to make a decision on an individual game.

http://www.wagerline.com/3/consensus....asp?Sport=NFL

SunOfBeach · #10 11-18-2005, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Those picks highlighted in green (at the end of the week, this was obviously a snapshot taken the day I posted it) are about 45% winners for the year, and that trend has been pretty solid at approx 45% for the last five years (which is the same as the length of time the site in question has been operating).

[/ QUOTE ]

i have two questions:

1. are those picks in green those which have one side being preferred by 60%+ of the public?

2. is there any evidence that the trend is more/less effective when the public is more overwhelmingly (say 70%+ or more) in favor of one side?