10/20 KQs river - Page 3

gh9801 · #21 12-07-2005, 03:58 AM

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of course he has the flush. And of course you have to call. Quit trying to play poker, this is limit.

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omfg this is not fold or call, this is call or raise. Who folds here? gg.

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Any sheep in the herd want to stand up and argue why it's close between a call and raise here? BTW, Villain is not passive, he has like 1.5AF, which is aggro for someone with 35VPIP. I've played a lot of 10/20 on PP lately and I've seen many of these types of players play hands strangely and c/r hands as weak as two pair here.

I still think this is a very clear threebet. No one likes to respond or argue with me because apparently I'm not in with the "in-crowd", I guess.

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Hand 1: 37.5000 % 37.50% 00.00% { QQ, 88, 33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h }
Hand 2: 62.5000 % 62.50% 00.00% { KhQh }

Take out the retardedly played sets and you're nowhere near a 66% favorite. As is, it's still a call unless you know him well enough that you intend to fold to a cap, and you don't.

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Thanks, I appreciate some in depth reasoning. I guess it's a lot closer than I thought. It's not a clear threebet, but I guess it's close enough that it doesn't really matter if you threebet or call?

I figured this was his range, it's still not high enough equity for KhQh
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 63.1579 % 63.16% 00.00% { KhQh }
Hand 2: 36.8421 % 36.84% 00.00% { 44-33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h }

newhizzle · #22 12-07-2005, 04:05 AM

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Hand 1: 37.5000 % 37.50% 00.00% { QQ, 88, 33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h }
Hand 2: 62.5000 % 62.50% 00.00% { KhQh }

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i could be wrong, but i think a 35% VPIP guy is limping suited crap below T9 early, id raise, but i think its close

cnfuzzd · #23 12-07-2005, 04:05 AM

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UTG+1 is 35.96/3.62/1.42 after 1000 and MP1 is 41.50/9.47 after 400. The blinds are tight and passive. shant is MP3. This is my first orbit playing with him at 10/20 and he does not know it is me. I think that he knows that the the limpers are bad because I know he datamines.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, 1 fold, I call, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, I raise, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 raises

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If the table has been fairly loose preflop, i think we can increase his hand range beyond what entity picked out. Sure, a 35% vpip isnt extremely high, but if a table has been playing loose, it will encourage the LP player to limp a whole lot more hands. Im not sure if this means we should 3 bet, but it is something to consider.

Sometimes i will 3 bet pf. Yes, i know, this is fairly lag. However, you are never really going to be protecting your hand, so i just start building a huge pot so i can call down and river something against Tags AK.

peace

john nickle

Entity · #24 12-07-2005, 04:10 AM

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UTG+1 is 35.96/3.62/1.42 after 1000 and MP1 is 41.50/9.47 after 400. The blinds are tight and passive. shant is MP3. This is my first orbit playing with him at 10/20 and he does not know it is me. I think that he knows that the the limpers are bad because I know he datamines.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, 1 fold, I call, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, I raise, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (7.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 raises

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If the table has been fairly loose preflop, i think we can increase his hand range beyond what entity picked out. Sure, a 35% vpip isnt extremely high, but if a table has been playing loose, it will encourage the LP player to limp a whole lot more hands. Im not sure if this means we should 3 bet, but it is something to consider.

Sometimes i will 3 bet pf. Yes, i know, this is fairly lag. However, you are never really going to be protecting your hand, so i just start building a huge pot so i can call down and river something against Tags AK.

peace

john nickle

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My range also includes sets as a counterbalance which are unlikely given his aggression and likelihood of popping the turn or flop. The 8h on the board diminishes a lot of EP limping hands he can have given a 35% VPIP.

SGS · #25 12-07-2005, 04:41 AM

This is an easy 3-bet. It is way more likely he has a smaller flush than you than he has the nut flush.

SGS

blumpkin22 · #26 12-07-2005, 04:52 AM

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It is way more likely he has a smaller flush than you than he has the nut flush.

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Explain this.

KramerTM · #27 12-07-2005, 04:56 AM

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It is way more likely he has a smaller flush than you than he has the nut flush.

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Explain this.

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I think he's considering all possible combinations of two hearts here. Doesn't really make sense to do that and is counter to how you are supposed to read a hand. Clearly there are a lot more combos of A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] than two hearts below a Q.

Entity · #28 12-07-2005, 05:03 AM

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This is an easy 3-bet. It is way more likely he has a smaller flush than you than he has the nut flush.

SGS

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It's not. First of all, in general, people are much looser in the blinds against raises when you see this sort of stat -- a 35/5 guy -- rather than just limping random trash UTG. That said, just for the sake of argument, I entered "38%" into the Stove to figure out what the top 38% of hands was, then filtered by what was suited.

A2s+,K3s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s

Unfortunately to achieve this range, we have to remove the following hands:

K3s+, Q5s+, J8s, T8s, 98s, 87s.

That leaves us with, in the suited realm, J7s, J9s, JTs, T9s, 97s, T7s and suited Aces. That's 6 possible river flushes that we beat, and A2s, A5s, A6s, A7s, A9s, ATs, and AJs that we lose to. Of course, pokerstove's estimates aren't perfect and we might be able to add a few more hands to his range -- maybe 76s because the table was great, or maybe 76s and 96s and J6s because our sample size isn't perfect? Regardless, when we add these combos in, and include the fact that he's most likely playing a set or two pair faster on the turn, we're not ahead of his range 66% of the time. If we knew that he would only cap the river with the nuts we could make a somewhat-thin value 3-bet here, intending to fold to a cap, but I don't think we have a good enough read to be attempting such a play in a large pot.

So yeah. Call. And enough of this "3-bet and it isn't close" [censored], because not only is it not a 3-bet, but we're going to have to tweak our read or the information we have to make this a 3-bet. We go with what we have, and what we've got says we call.

Rob

Entity · #29 12-07-2005, 05:04 AM

These stove results are from a player slightly looser than the one we have profiled here:

Hand 1: 38.8842 % 38.88% 00.00% { 88, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h }
Hand 2: 61.1158 % 61.12% 00.00% { KhQh }

Pokerstove is smart enough not to let duplicate cards mess with its results, so I just entered a fairly wide range of suited hands preflop that a player even slightly looser than this homie might limp.

Rob

KDawgCometh · #30 12-07-2005, 05:23 AM

I'm three betting here all day and all night. He is raising on a lesser flush a lot more often then he is raising with the nut flush. How bad are the limpers, if you three bet shant PF, will they call, cause if they will, I think putting a few more bets into the pot works for our hand