Ditch this draw or play?

[Elaboration]

Early in the PP 40k Guarantee. 10/15

Hero is dealth T7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button.

1 fold, donk utg(~750) min raises to t30, utg+2(~800) calls, an mp player calls, hero calls t30 and the blinds come along.

Pot = t180

Flop comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

blinds check, utg bets t15, utg+2 raises to t200 all the action folds to me...

Do I have to let this go? I figure I'm about even against his range.

What do you guys think?

Thanks-

[Exitonly]

Don't think you mentioned how much you have, but i think i'd push here.. still have some FE, probably favorite to win..

[Elaboration]

sorry, I have raiser covered by t300.

[Kirkrrr]

I don't think I'd be willing to back this particular hand with my whole stack since none of your draws are all that great... meaning you could make your hand and lose anyway.

I'd re-raise the flop and take a free card on the turn. If I don't improve and he checks the river, bet 2/3Pot. That seems to work the vast majority of the time. If he comes over the top, I'm probably letting this one go if I have more than 40-50BB left.

my 2c. Interesting what others think.
Kirk

Although line from above post looks good I think I'd pooosh expecting folds but not too bummed if i get a call. Plus you have the extra advantage if you get a caller that next time you have top set on a two flush board you can just open push your whole stack and get called.

[ekky]

[ QUOTE ]
Although line from above post looks good I think I'd pooosh expecting folds but not too bummed if i get a call. Plus you have the extra advantage if you get a caller that next time you have top set on a two flush board you can just open push your whole stack and get called.

[/ QUOTE ]

This depends on :

a) he wins the hand

b) he stays at the same table for the forseeable future

c) his table is full of observant players

none of those three are more then 50% likely, so (with the exception of a..) they dont figure to be overly important.

[Elaboration]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd re-raise the flop and take a free card on the turn. If I don't improve and he checks the river, bet 2/3Pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kirkrrr,

Didn't put my stack in the op.
After utg+2s raise the pot is at about t400. I have t1k. Any significant raise pretty much commits me to the pot and assuming I did get a free card I dont have enough to bet 2/3 the pot.
FWIW, I think that checking the turn and betting the river on this draw heavy board will look exactly like a missed flush draw too much to make the bet +EV.

[Kirkrrr]

You're right, you would be pretty much pot committed. I assumed you have about t1500, like on Pstars. In that case, push the river if he checks and all looks safe.

As far as checking the turn and betting the river, all I can say is that it works against 90% of average opponents. Usually, they are drawing too or have very marginal hands, otherwise they would re-raise the flop and bet the turn/river. So when you bet the river, they just let it go thinking you might be bluffing but not willing to risk their whole stack to find out for sure.

Kirk

[Elaboration]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as checking the turn and betting the river, all I can say is that it works against 90% of average opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm...you must be talking about that 5k guarantee on Saturday morniings, right? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] That I could see.

It's abit moot, since I believed that utg+2 would reraise all-in if I did anything but put him all-in. Stacks are a little shallower on Party, starting at 1k.

Thanks-

[Kirkrrr]

Heheh.. No, I'm talking about 25K gaurantee, $30+3 MTT's, and anything up to $30 buy in SnG's on Stars. I don't play higher stakes tourney's than that, but these are the ones we're currently discussing anyway.

Kirk