Am I drawing dead?

PokerFink · #1 11-28-2005, 03:15 AM

Reads:

CO is a bad player. He has only sat for a few hands, but has already managed to go broke by re-raising preflop with AJs and then calling all-in from a third player who pushed over top.

UTG is loose and is probably a marginally winning player. I have a pretty good read on his betting, his small bets are generally small hands but when he fires for real bets he has something. He's gotten all in once so far tonight and showed the nuts.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

saw flop|saw showdown

CO ($44.70)
Button ($79)
Hero ($144.55)
BB ($23.50)
UTG ($190.15)
MP ($70.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, CO raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $3.

Flop: ($13) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $5, Hero calls $5, UTG raises to $20, CO calls $15, Hero calls $15.

Turn: ($73) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $20, CO raises to $20.7 (All-In), Hero calls $20.70, UTG calls $0.69.

River: ($135.10) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Action is on hero with $100 left and a dry side pot....

My thinking on the flop: Obviously this is very passive, but one of my rules of thumb is not to semi-bluff bad players. He's going to pay me off when I hit, so why get FPS? After the check/raise I'm getting excellent odds to call and I close the action, so this is an easy call. I no longer consider a Q or K to be outs.

My thinking on the turn: Uh oh. As I said, I'm hesitant to splash against UTG when he is firing away for big bets. I'm confident he has something. He definitely raises JJ preflop, but 88 and TJ are out there. TJ has me especially scared. I ponder, but getting 5.5-1 I don't see how I can fold. If he bets more here I muck.

My thinking on the river: One time! Ok, now what?

(Edit to add: yeah, duh, I can make a straight flush. But I meant drawing dead to that, ie, villian has a house already on the turn)

scdavis0 · #2 11-28-2005, 03:18 AM

Check/fold unless he bets like 1/5 pot

trumpman84 · #3 11-28-2005, 03:24 AM

Nah...you aren't drawing dead ..the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] gives you a straight flush which will surely beat villain's quads.

And no..I'm never folding here on the river with less than the pot in my stack. I think I lead here for $50 or maybe go all-in. It will be hard for villain to fold whatever he has in this size of a pot for $50 which is why I chose that as opposed to going all in because villain's turn bet is telling me that he isn't that strong or is unsure of his hand or that he has a full house and wnats you to hit your flush. Reguardless, if you were going to fold when you made your flush, you should've folded the turn when the board paired.

trumpman84 · #4 11-28-2005, 03:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check/fold unless he bets like 1/5 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh..I don't think putting lots of money into a huge pot on a draw, then check folding when you hit is good poker...that's just me though, I might be wrong.

scdavis0 · #5 11-28-2005, 03:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/fold unless he bets like 1/5 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh..I don't think putting lots of money into a huge pot on a draw, then check folding when you hit is good poker...that's just me though, I might be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm positive that it's not "just you" but it just so happens you are in fact wrong.

Hero's hand is a draw to all but the most dense of hand readers-- flush draw being the most obvious. Any reasonable villain is not betting the river with less than a boat... in a dry sidepot no less...

To OP: Folding/calling the turn is pretty close (the str8 flush outs may swing it), but his bet looks very transparent. He wants you to get there drawing dead. The only reason for calling is to hit your draw and praying the river goes check/check.

trumpman84 · #6 11-28-2005, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm positive that it's not "just you" but it just so happens you are in fact wrong..

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems very weak tight to me...villain could check raise the flop with a variety of hands that coincide with his turn bet. His range includes, but is probably not limited to QJ (top pair/open ended str8 draw), JT, J8, AJ, TT, 88, T8, AA/KK (slowplayed), a flopped straight (Q9/97) Remember..villain is loose, so all of these hands are not outside of his range. His turn bet is either a full house that wants you to make a flush, or a weak hand that is looking for a cheap showdown in a big pot, so I don't think the turn bet is out of line for any of villain's holdings except for maybe a straight.

Most of these hands will make a crying river call of a 1/3-1/2 pot sized bet on the river in this size of a pot...calls a loose player is probalby going to make, but almost all of the losing ones will check behind, so my default play here would be to block/value bet the river and fold to a raise, but hero is not deep enough for that. If he bets $50 and gets raised, he only has to put in $50 more, so my default play changes to either push all-in or bet smaller and be prepared to go broke.

I don't give up >1 buy-in pots with a flush unless I have a real good reason to (double paired board...3 of a kind board... or I have a deeper stack than the pot and am put all-in on the river and I have a read that villain wouldn't do this with a hand I beat) and I can't find one

orange · #7 11-28-2005, 08:41 AM

I don't understand the flop. Isn't this a standard bet/3-bet all-in here? You have an OESFD, and the way you played it, you scream to them your on a FD. I try to get the money in ASAP.

I think the turn is very close. It is player dependent IMO,but with such good odds, I think I call.

I can definitely see villan (UTG) having say, a J10 here. I think I c/c a marginal bet on the river. I want to go to showdown.

Hattifnatt · #8 11-28-2005, 08:43 AM

I would lead the flop and probably 3-bet all-in if someone raises.

soah · #9 11-28-2005, 08:53 AM

If you bet $50, he calls with hands you beat? If he raises that bet, then it's safe to fold? Or is it not that simple against this guy?

scrapperdog · #10 11-28-2005, 09:09 AM

If you were worried about drawing dead you should have folded the turn. I am not going to take a draw unless I can get value out of it when it hits. If you dont feel like you can bet your draw when it hits then dont take it.