Hypothetical WSOP Satellite Question

[Rick Diesel]

[ QUOTE ]
In theory, when the short stack goes all in, shouldn't everyone call and check it down? Altruistic maybe, but all else being equal 8 out of 9 times the guy is busted, and 1 in 9 he is then the chip leader, but you are all still playing.

It would also be interesting to make a deal. If everyone put up 1k, you all still go, sans the spending money, and he gets a serious cash prize, and is almost there as well.

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But also in theory, if I am the guy with 50K then I am not giving away my 1K since I currently have the biggest stack and can probably fold in to the seat.

[ilya]

Why do people start wanting to fold as their stack gets bigger? If I have 30,000, I can call this, lose, and still have a very reasonable 18K stack. But right about 20K is where it's ugliest.

[Rick Diesel]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's pretend that you are playing in a Stars 650 WSOP satellite. There are 9 players left. 1-8 get seats + 1K, 9th gets 650. Blinds are 600-1,200. All the players at the table are somewahat reasonable. The stack sizes and positions are as follows:

SB (28,000)
BB (Hero) (20,000)
UTG (20,000)
UTG1 (50,000)
UTG2 (40,000)
MP1 (12,000)
MP2 (30,000)
CO (35,000)
BUT (30,000)

Action: It is folded to MP1 who goes all-in for 12,000, folded to Hero who has KK. Hero?

If you answer fold, what would be the maximum stack size of MP1 that you would call against? If you answer call, would your answer change if you had 25,000 to begin with instead of 20,000?

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I would call. If I had aces here I probably would not puch all-in, instead raising it to about 3600 to try and get some action. In most cases, I think you will find that the raiser has AK-AQ, QQ-99. Therefore I call.

[Black Aces 518]

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Why do people start wanting to fold as their stack gets bigger? If I have 30,000, I can call this, lose, and still have a very reasonable 18K stack. But right about 20K is where it's ugliest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I am not going to be more than an 80ish% favorite with KK preflop. The bigger my stack, the more likely it is that my chance of winning a seat without playing this hand > my chance of winning this hand. How dumb do you feel if you are 4th in chips of 9, call here, and lose to A5 suited, and are now the short stack? For what?

[Lurshy]

I dunno, I've played in some of these 6-15 prize satellites, where you think you can sit back, but soon enough that comfortable stack is now a short stack because you have refused to play.

You still need to play poker, and if I know the larger stacks aren't playing, I will steal.

KK plays here.

[MaGi]

No way would I fold here...you're 2nd to last in chips, if he doesn't bust soon then you're the one in trouble. I don't think my answer changes with 5k more chips either.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do people start wanting to fold as their stack gets bigger? If I have 30,000, I can call this, lose, and still have a very reasonable 18K stack. But right about 20K is where it's ugliest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I am not going to be more than an 80ish% favorite with KK preflop. The bigger my stack, the more likely it is that my chance of winning a seat without playing this hand > my chance of winning this hand. How dumb do you feel if you are 4th in chips of 9, call here, and lose to A5 suited, and are now the short stack? For what?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't feel dumb at all, I'd feel extremely irritated that I got unlucky after making the right play. It's not like I'd be doomed with 18K. 30K is not so safe that I wouldn't take a better than 2:1 shot at ending it right there (if the guy showed me his A5o or something).

[Shorty35]

For the reasons stated above, I think this is a call and its not even that close. You're still have enough chips if you lose -- and KK will be a favorite to his hand more than 70% of the time. If you define a narrow range for him to include 99-AA, AKs-ATs, AKo and AQo you are a 70% favorite. Expand the range (which is surely correct) and the odds are even more favorable

[sloth469]

The reason that folding is possibly the right play is because there quite a few people that think like many of the posters in this thread and go to war w/ much worse than KK. So ask yourself, if you had JJ instead of KK does that change your answer at all?

-sloth

[malice51]

Same here. Man, if folding KK is the right play here then I have a lot to learn. Well I do anyway, but you know what I mean.