($27) PUSH or FOLD challenge

[durron597]

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After running the program, it is a 1.3% mistake to push if the SB is on L and the BB is on M. blame either decision here.

Brad

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When I do it it gives me +.5 for the above ranges. Someone messed up.

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This is what I get also. SB on average (which I think is too tight here) gives you the +.9.

[gisb0rne]

I don't know about you guys but in my experience the ranges in SNGPT are way too tight. No maniac caller is calling with just 20% of his hands (or whatever that range is). Put in 30% for BB and 30% for SB and it's a clear fold. Even 20%/20% is only marginally +0.4%. Put in something more realistic like 30% for the SB and Loose for the BB and it's dead even money to push or fold.

I also think people place way too much emphasis on how people have acted in the last couple of similar situations. The SB could be a total maniac and call with 75% of his hands but if he's getting cards no better than 7 high every time you'll never know.

[ilya]

I voted fold.

[pooh74]

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I don't know about you guys but in my experience the ranges in SNGPT are way too tight. No maniac caller is calling with just 20% of his hands (or whatever that range is). Put in 30% for BB and 30% for SB and it's a clear fold. Even 20%/20% is only marginally +0.4%. Put in something more realistic like 30% for the SB and Loose for the BB and it's dead even money to push or fold.

I also think people place way too much emphasis on how people have acted in the last couple of similar situations. The SB could be a total maniac and call with 75% of his hands but if he's getting cards no better than 7 high every time you'll never know.

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You should know...you play them. 27ers are way too tight for calling ranges. They just dont call optimally. The term "maniac" is just a word..."loose"...whatever. Point is given what Durron told us, I dont think this guy is calling w/o top 15% or so. The stack sizes here play a big part in my decision aside from SNGPT. (meaning, their sizes and their effect on the player's calling psychology. obviously intrinsic "size" is accounted for).

Just forget I said I'd push this though next time youre in BB??? ok?

p

[HesseJam]

I voted fold. Just an educated guess...

[durron597]

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I don't know about you guys but in my experience the ranges in SNGPT are way too tight. No maniac caller is calling with just 20% of his hands (or whatever that range is). Put in 30% for BB and 30% for SB and it's a clear fold. Even 20%/20% is only marginally +0.4%. Put in something more realistic like 30% for the SB and Loose for the BB and it's dead even money to push or fold.

I also think people place way too much emphasis on how people have acted in the last couple of similar situations. The SB could be a total maniac and call with 75% of his hands but if he's getting cards no better than 7 high every time you'll never know.

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Think about what 30% really means though! Are you calling with K4s as either player? I'm not, and I strongly doubt you are either.

If it wasn't clear in the OP - I was playing on the tight side but not *very tight*. One hand per orbit (and I missed last orbit) is not "LAG". I coincidentally happened to have showdownable hands on Hyperion's blind. But he knows it's me and I know he knows it's me. Plus he was playing tight today and I don't know if he realized I realized that. With these stack sizes - Hyperion has to call with a widish range because of his stack, but he's not cooked if he folds. Next hand, UTG is calling me if I push, so I need a hand. The hand after that, I'm UTG 5 handed, so I need a good hand to show down as 3rd place stack. The hand after that, I'm posting 20% of my stack in the blind, so suddenly I'm in the unenviable position of calling a push from Hyperion or UTG (from the OP) with a hand like K4s. I think I'd rather take my chances with FE now than be screwed as the shortstack later.

[pooh74]

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I don't know about you guys but in my experience the ranges in SNGPT are way too tight. No maniac caller is calling with just 20% of his hands (or whatever that range is). Put in 30% for BB and 30% for SB and it's a clear fold. Even 20%/20% is only marginally +0.4%. Put in something more realistic like 30% for the SB and Loose for the BB and it's dead even money to push or fold.

I also think people place way too much emphasis on how people have acted in the last couple of similar situations. The SB could be a total maniac and call with 75% of his hands but if he's getting cards no better than 7 high every time you'll never know.

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Think about what 30% really means though! Are you calling with K4s as either player? I'm not, and I strongly doubt you are either.

If it wasn't clear in the OP - I was playing on the tight side but not *very tight*. One hand per orbit (and I missed last orbit) is not "LAG". I coincidentally happened to have showdownable hands on Hyperion's blind. But he knows it's me and I know he knows it's me. Plus he was playing tight today and I don't know if he realized I realized that. With these stack sizes - Hyperion has to call with a widish range because of his stack, but he's not cooked if he folds. Next hand, UTG is calling me if I push, so I need a hand. The hand after that, I'm UTG 5 handed, so I need a good hand to show down as 3rd place stack. The hand after that, I'm posting 20% of my stack in the blind, so suddenly I'm in the unenviable position of calling a push from Hyperion or UTG (from the OP) with a hand like K4s. I think I'd rather take my chances with FE now than be screwed as the shortstack later.

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Very well put D!

You can find a push/call equilibrium at:

push 35%
SB call 15%
BB call 21%

If you convert these % to ranges, you get:
push 22+,A2+,KTo+,K5s+,QTo+,Q7s+,J9o+,J7s+,T9o,T7s+,97s +,86s+,76s
SB call 33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+
BB call 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+,QJs

If you use these ranges is SNGPT, there isn't an equilibrium -- something about the conversion of % to range throws things off (presumably because the ranges are not exactly a whole number %).

If the SB or BB is calling more often, the button wants to push less often. If the SB or BB is calling less often, the button wants to push more often. It doesn't take much of a change in calling ranges to make a big change in pushing range: if the SB calls 12% and the BB calls 17%, button's pushing range becomes 84%; if the SB call 19% and the BB calls 25%, button's pushing range is 21%.

97o isn't in the equilibrium pushing range, but it's pretty close; it doesn't take much of an adjustment to put 97o in the pushing range.

Even given near-perfect play from the BB and SB, I don't think you can definitively answer this question. A small error in either direction by either the BB or the SB will move the button pushing range significantly.

This may, however, be a situation where you can exploit imperfect play. If you think the actual BB and SB calling ranges deviate significantly from the equilibrium point, you should be able to exploit this to give yourself large +EV positions.

[tigerite]

Without doing any calcs, I voted for a marginal push. I thought it was close though. After reading the following posts, it seems I was correct on both counts.

[Iamafish]

I voted push simply becuase of the information you gave about SB being tight, I like being the aggressor, and In a 27, they have much tighter calling ranges than a 16. Im also assuming it will be 300/600 soon, try to take em here. In a 16, I'd fold pretty quickly.