|
|
#12
08-03-2005, 03:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 5-5 FW deep stacks tricky situation
Aggie, the thing is..no1 in their right mind can advise you to fold here. I think that is very very dependent on the player. I know a lotta times at fw such bets are the nuts, but that is very player dependent. If you are looking for some1 to say "fold" im afraid it isnt gonna come.
|
|
#13
08-03-2005, 03:28 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 5-5 FW deep stacks tricky situation
fwiw i don't even think he's playing deep enough to make anything but a push correct, if he had 2000 more left i'd just call and play the turn
|
|
#14
08-03-2005, 03:28 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 5-5 FW deep stacks tricky situation
Great post...I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. But if we're going to have a discussion here, let me play devils advocate.
[ QUOTE ] 67s (4 combos, would he play 67o for a raise? Doubt it.) And it's 2:1 against improving 88 (3 combos) And we're basically drawing dead. 44 (3 combos) And he's basically drawing dead [/ QUOTE ] These, i think, are far and away the most likely hands that he'd raise to $500 with. They are all probably equally likely. I think there is a reasonable chance he's going to fold 4-4 if i push. i also think 67os is a possibility since we are playing deep stack poker [ QUOTE ] 45s (1 combo) drawing basically dead Overpairs 99-JJ And he has 2 outs [/ QUOTE ] He's folding these hands if i push. I also think they are far less likely and i think he's more likely to either raise less or call with these hands (the overpairs in particular. [ QUOTE ] Flush draws (Lots of combos.) 2:1 against him Flush draw with a pair (89s, A8s) 2:1 against him Straight flush draw (78s, 68s) 3:2 against him Bluff: Drawing nearly dead. [/ QUOTE ] I just didn't think this guy is aggressive enough to be pushing his draws so hard. That was my gut anyway....Maybe i did not describe him well? Problem was i had not played with him long so i could not be sure. So yes....There's lots of hands i'm ahead of but the ones that i'm behind are far more likely to be making that raise. That raise seemed VERY strong to me.
|
|
#15
08-03-2005, 03:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Results
Wow a lot of good and quick replies. I'm somewhat suprised how one-sided they are as i thought this was more on the borderline...
When he raised to $500 my instinct told me he was VERY strong.....But that read is very hard to quantify which is why i did not include it in the OP...I was far from certain.... I thought about this forever because i really thought i was beat. I think my bet on the flop was strong so a huge raise screams a huge hand...Of course my image may have damaged this somewhat..... So i started asking questions....."how much do you have behind"..."how much is that in bills"...."how much in chips"..."how much EXACTLY is the total"....He answered my questions fairly calmly which was not a good sign.... Anyway, i thought forever (which i rarely do) and finally i decided to put him allin.....He had 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].... "thank god...I've still got some outs" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] APOLOGY: sorry if this post was not educational...It was mostly for my own peace of mind. edited to add apology
|
|
#16
08-03-2005, 04:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Results
Aggie,I hope you dont mind me saying this..but to me it seems that u have had ur sets run into straights a few times and lost big pots due to that, and that seems to have bearing on such hands.
|
|
#17
08-03-2005, 04:18 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
Aggie,I hope you dont mind me saying this..but to me it seems that u have had ur sets run into straights a few times and lost big pots due to that, and that seems to have bearing on such hands. [/ QUOTE ] Nah....I've probably had my sets beat just about my fair share....The hand against you was bothersome because i had to back my set with 500bb's when i thought it was fairly likely i was beat. This hand just made feel like an idiot. I thought i was beat, yet i pushed anyway...So maybe i was just trying to get some reasurance. On another note, the reason i'm able to buyin to the FW game for 500 bb's is because i rarely get put to the test. ML4L recently wrote: "I don't mind being put to the test. As long as i pass the test" Well, i hate getting put to the test....I like putting others to the test. I hope to get to ML4L's level some day although i doubt it is possible for me.
|
|
#18
08-03-2005, 04:30 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 5-5 FW deep stacks tricky situation
[ QUOTE ]
Great post...I'm certainly not disagreeing with you. But if we're going to have a discussion here, let me play devils advocate. [ QUOTE ] 67s (4 combos, would he play 67o for a raise? Doubt it.) And it's 2:1 against improving 88 (3 combos) And we're basically drawing dead. 44 (3 combos) And he's basically drawing dead [/ QUOTE ] These, i think, are far and away the most likely hands that he'd raise to $500 with. They are all probably equally likely. I think there is a reasonable chance he's going to fold 4-4 if i push. i also think 67os is a possibility since we are playing deep stack poker [/ QUOTE ] Villian isn't folding any of these hands, even 44. If he is, he is making a big mistake, considering your image. You're right though, stacks are so deep that 67o is a possibility, putting it up from 4 to 16 combos. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 45s (1 combo) drawing basically dead Overpairs 99-JJ And he has 2 outs [/ QUOTE ] He's folding these hands if i push. I also think they are far less likely and i think he's more likely to either raise less or call with these hands (the overpairs in particular. [/ QUOTE ] True, if you push, he folds these hands. However, if you call, what do you do on the turn? a) if a blank hits, or the board pairs. If you lead strong again, he still folds these hands If you check, I think he checks behind b) If the flush card hits If you lead, he might have you beat and push If he doesn't have you beat, he probably folds If you check, he takes his free card to beat you. c) If he catches his 2 outer, you lose your ass [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Flush draws (Lots of combos.) 2:1 against him Flush draw with a pair (89s, A8s) 2:1 against him Straight flush draw (78s, 68s) 3:2 against him Bluff: Drawing nearly dead. [/ QUOTE ] I just didn't think this guy is aggressive enough to be pushing his draws so hard. That was my gut anyway....Maybe i did not describe him well? Problem was i had not played with him long so i could not be sure. [/ QUOTE ] If he has any of these hands (except a bluff), he's pot committed, and basically has to call. If he folds, great. [ QUOTE ] So yes....There's lots of hands i'm ahead of but the ones that i'm behind are far more likely to be making that raise. That raise seemed VERY strong to me. [/ QUOTE ] Of course, this is very player dependant. However, considering a combination of the fact that you don't know him very well, and the fact that you think he might think that you're a maniac... I still think a push is best.
|
|
#19
08-03-2005, 05:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Results
[ QUOTE ]
Well, i hate getting put to the test....I like putting others to the test. I hope to get to ML4L's level some day although i doubt it is possible for me. [/ QUOTE ] imo the key to big bet poker is confidence. people can write about reading players, mental recall, quick math aptitude, etc. but it all comes down to confidence. this sounds corny, so if it is, just move on, but believe in yourself, aggie.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
