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Old 12-30-2005, 01:21 AM
HighStakesPro HighStakesPro is offline
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Posts: 6
Default Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

I'm not sure if this is the right forum for this topic or not, but it seems closest to what I'm looking for.

After over a year of playing poker online for stakes that were too high for my bankroll, I think I've finally learned my lesson, and I'm trying to play with a proper strategy that will insure that I gradually increase my bankroll and insure that i have virtually no chance of going broke.

I am following Mark Blade's reccomendation of four hundred big bets. I am four-tabling $0.50/1 Limit Hold'em (full table) on PokerStars, and I started with $400. I have forced myself to play absolutely nothing else. I am keeping track of my results with CardPlayer's Poker Analyst, and so far after 76:36 of total playing time, I have made $116.50 for a total of 1.52 BB/hour. I am adding up the time for each individual table I play, so for every one hour of real time, it amounts to approximately four hours of total playing time, so the figure is really 1.52 BB per table per hour. Poker Analyst also tells me that my standard deviation, through 19 sessions of around one hour each (12 wins 7 losses), is 22.62. Here is what I want to know:

1. Does multi-tabling increase my fluctuation/volatility or increase my risk of going broke wiht 400 BB?
2. Is it accurate for me to record four hours of time if I play for one hour at four tables?
3. How many hours and/or sessions do I need to play for my hourly rate and standard deviation to be stable enough to be truthfully reflected by my results?
4. What is a "typical" standard deviation, and if my standard deviation is low enough, can I jump up to $1/2, or whatever the next level is, with fewer big bets in my bankroll? How low would my standard deviation have to be to do this?
5. Once I have acccurate enough figures for hourly rate and standard deviation, how do I then calculate what my bankroll should be? What is the formula?
6. Is there any literature about bankroll strategy and formulas (other than Blade, who I have read) that would be helpful to me?

Whoever has gotten to this point, thank you for reading the entire query and hopefully answering some of my questions.
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  #2  
Old 12-30-2005, 03:34 AM
ohnonotthat ohnonotthat is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: New Jersey - near A.C.
Posts: 511
Default Re: Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

1. No, although it will likely lower your overall win rate due to lack of perfect focus on the marginal situations

2. Most online players measure in units of 100 hands rather than in hours.

3. Question too vague tho I'm sure others will have opinions

4. Not sure I understood - if you're asking whether you'll need less money to move up if your SD is far below that of the average player - yes. you'll need less than Joe average

5. If you scream loudly someone will provide you with the link - I don't know it offhand

6. Tons - caveat emtor, alot of it resides between inaccurate and just plain wrong
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  #3  
Old 12-30-2005, 05:37 AM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if this is the right forum for this topic or not, but it seems closest to what I'm looking for.

After over a year of playing poker online for stakes that were too high for my bankroll, I think I've finally learned my lesson, and I'm trying to play with a proper strategy that will insure that I gradually increase my bankroll and insure that i have virtually no chance of going broke.

I am following Mark Blade's reccomendation of four hundred big bets. I am four-tabling $0.50/1 Limit Hold'em (full table) on PokerStars, and I started with $400. I have forced myself to play absolutely nothing else. I am keeping track of my results with CardPlayer's Poker Analyst, and so far after 76:36 of total playing time, I have made $116.50 for a total of 1.52 BB/hour. I am adding up the time for each individual table I play, so for every one hour of real time, it amounts to approximately four hours of total playing time, so the figure is really 1.52 BB per table per hour. Poker Analyst also tells me that my standard deviation, through 19 sessions of around one hour each (12 wins 7 losses), is 22.62. Here is what I want to know:

1. Does multi-tabling increase my fluctuation/volatility or increase my risk of going broke wiht 400 BB?
2. Is it accurate for me to record four hours of time if I play for one hour at four tables?
3. How many hours and/or sessions do I need to play for my hourly rate and standard deviation to be stable enough to be truthfully reflected by my results?
4. What is a "typical" standard deviation, and if my standard deviation is low enough, can I jump up to $1/2, or whatever the next level is, with fewer big bets in my bankroll? How low would my standard deviation have to be to do this?
5. Once I have acccurate enough figures for hourly rate and standard deviation, how do I then calculate what my bankroll should be? What is the formula?
6. Is there any literature about bankroll strategy and formulas (other than Blade, who I have read) that would be helpful to me?

Whoever has gotten to this point, thank you for reading the entire query and hopefully answering some of my questions.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Do not make the same post to 5 different forums. Post to 1 forum, and possibly cross-link to one other in rare circumstances.

2. For the highest probability of getting a response, ask one or two direct questions. Do not ask such a large number of general questions that it would require a book for a response, otherwise even people like me who otherwise would answer you will choose not to.

3. Use the search function and the archives as all of your questions have been answered here many times.
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  #4  
Old 12-30-2005, 06:02 AM
HighStakesPro HighStakesPro is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 6
Default Re: Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

what is cross linking and how do I do it?
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  #5  
Old 12-30-2005, 11:25 AM
KramerTM KramerTM is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 78
Default Re: Bankroll formulas with hourly rate and standard deviation

1. Think of it as playing a single table with a dealer who deals four times as fast.
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